(meteorobs) Re: Predictable meteor outbursts in the 21st century

[Mikhail Maslov]

Hello,

In predictions by Sato (from NMS page) for Perseids 2005
there is a rather good encounter with 4
rev. trail of 1479 year. My raw calculations using Lyytinen's model
for Leonids showed that activity could be somewhat similar to 1 rev.
trail in this year. When comparing Sato predictions for Perseids 2004
and 2005, it can be seen, that distanses from Earth to 1 rev train in
2004 and to 4 rev. trail in 2005 are 0.001296 and 0.000829
respectively. With time trails are getting age and they lost density
and getting larger and larger. It means, that if the prediction is
right, the chances of enhansed activity are much greater in 2005
comparing to 2004. The main problem is that the trail is much older,
so due to various perturbations we have greatly increasing possibility
to face an empty part of the trail.
Leonids in 2005 are unfavored by Moon, and, as chanses of any
suffucient enhancements are very small, I could assume that we'll see
not much. I know only one prediction for 2005 (by E. Lyytinen), and it
doesn't show any good encounters. Let's wait for 2006 and 2007.
I can little to nothing say about S-W and 21P. For S-W I saw
predictions for 2022 when Earth have chance to face the dust cloud
ejected by comet decay.
For 21P we have good predictions by J. Vaubaillon for 2011 (see pr.
posts), for 2018 we have only general consideration of comet orbit
closing to Earth's one and Earth coming to node just 22 days after the
comet.
To Shy Halatzi. Alpha-Monocerotids were told here lately. If briefly,
indeed, 2005 is a next scheduled year to give an outburst, but Esko
Lyytinen says that chances are low.

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov


t> Hello,
t>   How about the major activity in coming years? e.g. 
t> Perseids/Leonids next year, will the Earth meet some revolutions? 
t> And how about the S-W 3 in 2006 and 21P in 2018? I heard it's said 
t> they will produce some activity.
t> Thanks,
t> Quanzhi

t> --- In meteorobs at yahoogroups.com, "Lyytinen Esko" 
t> <Esko.Lyytinen at M...> wrote:
>> 
>> Mikhail and others,
>> 
>> If the real ZHR might be in the midway between our predictions, 
t> then
>> there would not be so big errors in either predictions ;-)
>> Esko
>> 
>> >>>
>> Jeremie, Esko,
>> 
>> Thanks for your notes. Nevertheless, what's about Leonids 2034. 
t> Esko
>> gives no storm predictions for this year (as for all period till 
t> 2098),
>> with max. ZHR maybe at 500-600 (considering the 5 and 10 rev. 
t> trails
>> partly supplementing each other). Jeremie says about at least two
>> storms. A contradiction?
>> 
>> Best regards, Mikhail Maslov
>> 
>> 
>> JV> ..
>> ---
>> Mailing list meteorobs
>> meteorobs at m...
>> http://lists.meteorobs.org/mailman/listinfo/meteorobs



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