(meteorobs) Re: Predictable meteor outbursts in the 21st century

[Mikiya Sato]

Hello all,

I am Mikiya Sato.

>In predictions by Sato (from NMS page) for Perseids 2005
>there is a rather good encounter with 4rev. trail of 1479 year.

This predictions were by Isao Sato, not by me. I want you to be careful.
I mark as "Mikiya Sato" or "M.Sato" to my predictions after Giacobinids
this year. ;-)

But I calculated it in a hurry, since it became a topic on this.

Perseids(by M.Sato);
Date  Time (UT)  S.Long.  dR(AU)   Trail D.Speed fM      Peak level
2004/08/11 20:49 139.440 -0.00134  1862   22.7   1.0    (High level)
2005/08/12 08:57 139.681 -0.00087  1479    4.86  0.0062  No peak.

The trail of 1479 on 2005 is extended by perturbations,
as Mikhail Maslov wrote. The fM value is very small (0.0062) 
as compared with trail of 1862 on 2004 (about 1.0).
So, probably this peak will not be observed.
(Like a case of Leonids trail of 1135 on this year, by my prediction.)

And I took up also about SW-3 from my caluclations.

SW-3 (by M.Sato);
Date  Time (UT)  S.Long.  dR(AU)   Trail D.Speed fM      Peak level
2017/05/31 01:52  69.587 -0.00255  1941  -15.2   0.17  Middle scale peak?
2022/05/31 05:27  69.467 -0.00045  1995  -26.6   0.30  Meteor Storm?

I think that a middle scale peak will be observed in 2017.
And a high scale peak (Meteor storm level?) may be observed in 2022.
The comet was divided with out burst in 1995, so this trail of 1995 
(on 2022) is very expectable.
(And it seems that some other trails will approach in 2022.)
Probably, it will not be so active although it appears on 2006 and 2011.
I think that I want to calculate in detail, and to collect.

And I want to announce about other Meteor showers too, when I will 
finish calculating.

Best wishes,

Mikiya Sato
mail at kaicho.net