(meteorobs) NWM 2004 Geminid meteor predictions

[Peter Brunone]

Hi Norman,

	First of all, thanks for the numbers!  Does this mean that we in
America have no chance of seeing an optimal bright peak this year?

-----Original Message-----
From: meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org On Behalf Of Norman W. McLeod III

I decided to do a worldwide quadrant-oriented set of Geminid meteor 
predictions this year, based on what I have seen here in sampling all
parts 
of the activity curve.  The peak rate I am leaving blank.  In 2001 I was

down a full quarter of my general peak rate from the prior 25 years or 
so.  Could it be the expected decline in Geminid rates has started?  It
got 
steadily better in my earlier years (1963 - 1975), then held quite
steady 
at 80 - 95/hr (1979 - 1996).  In 2001 I was back down to 64/hr at best,
a 
thumping drop in just a few years despite a dark sky.

The best Geminid rates come as the radiant transits the meridian at
roughly 
2 AM local time, plus about 2 hours either side of that.  The peak
period 
seems to be a day wide, so it is not necessary to be in any particular
time 
zone to see the top rates.

In each entry below appear the earth quadrant with the radiant at its 
highest, UT date and hour (leaning to the eastern side of each quadrant
; 
the American one I am located in here), double-dated night, and expected

rates with other notes.  Rates are for dark skies and should be good for

all latitudes north of roughly 10N.  Urban watchers will see only a
handful 
of Geminids during the faint-meteor periods, but will fare much better
when 
bright Geminids are around.  Some earlier and later dates are also given

with general rates.

December 9/10, 10/hr Geminids everywhere.

December 10/11, 15-20/hr Geminids but getting higher in Europe.

America, Dec 12, 07 UT, Dec 11/12 -- 35 - 40/hr.

Pacific, Dec 12, 13 UT, Dec 11/12 east, Dec 12/13 west -- 40/hr.

Asia, Dec 12, 19 UT, Dec 12/13 -- 40/hr.

Europe, Dec 13, 01 UT, Dec 12/13 -- 40/hr early, may notice increase
late.

America, Dec 13, 07 UT, Dec 12/13 -- peak rates, mostly faint.

Pacific, Dec 13, 13 UT, Dec 12/13 east, Dec 13/14 west -- peak rates, 
brighter ones increasing.

Asia, Dec 13, 19 UT, Dec 13/14 -- peak rates, both bright and faint.

Europe, Dec 14, 01 UT, Dec 13/14 -- peak rates, both bright and faint,
may 
notice decline in rates by end of night.

America, Dec 14, 07 UT, Dec 13/14 -- rate 35 - 40/hr, mostly bright
early, 
all bright but rapidly falling rate later.

Pacific, Dec 14, 13 UT, Dec 13/14 east, Dec 14/15 west -- 15/hr, a few 
bright early, faint ones then take over.

Asia, Dec 14, 19 UT, Dec 14/15 -- 15/hr, mostly faint.

Europe, Dec 15, 01 UT, Dec 14/15 -- 10 - 15/hr, mostly faint.

America, Dec 15, 07 UT, Dec 14/15 -- 10/hr, mostly faint.

December 15/16, 5/hr everywhere.

December 16/17, 3 - 4/hr everywhere.


Norman




Norman W. McLeod III
Staff Advisor
American Meteor Society

Fort Myers, Florida
nmcleod at peganet.com
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