(meteorobs) Geminid followup and more

[Norman W. McLeod III]

Peter,

>         First of all, thanks for the numbers!  Does this mean that we in
>America have no chance of seeing an optimal bright peak this year?

That's right.  I have seen this go on every leap year back to 1968.  But it 
puts the American quadrant in the most interesting place for Dec 
13/14.  The brightness of the Geminids that night is dramatic, mostly first 
magnitude and better, as well as their rich coloring (for those that don't 
see just white.)  We have to accept the high numbers but faintness of the 
Geminids on Dec 12/13.

As far as hearing meteors goes, I have yet to hear one despite observing 
since 1960 and recording about 90000 meteors.  That certainly doesn't mean 
sounds aren't real.  Some people are more sensitive to electrophonic sounds 
than others.  The report we just read about the 1966 Leonids seems 
strange.  I was watching that night from Tallahassee, Florida and didn't 
hear a thing despite a rate of 30/minute by dawn.  I have been unlucky with 
several Florida fireballs over the years also, being too far from all of 
them for the usual air-conducted sound that others did report hearing.

 From Pete Bias,

As an aside, how does one get a +1 or +3 magnitude for black 
meteors?  Wouldn't these magnitudes necessarily have to be brighter than 
the surrounding sky and therefore look bright, not black?

it's hard to put anything tangible on this.  Just some kind of personal 
impression, perhaps thinking some of the moving black spots look larger 
than others, then comparing their size with the spikey or glare size of 
stars of known magnitude.  And I agree with an earlier post about blind 
spots not being visible as blackness against the sky.

While we're at it, I haven't seen a distinct curved meteor either.  Don't 
be fooled by a long meteor going parallel to the horizon and seeming to 
rise and fall.  The path is still straight.  Hold up a straightedge along 
the meteor path and see for yourself.

As for seeing more meteors in general, go for a darker sky !  Perception 
you are stuck with what you are born with so you may see systematically 
more than average, or less.  I am just average in perception, and it wasn't 
any better when I was younger.

Norman












>-----Original Message-----
>From: meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org On Behalf Of Norman W. McLeod III
>
>I decided to do a worldwide quadrant-oriented set of Geminid meteor
>predictions this year, based on what I have seen here in sampling all
>parts
>of the activity curve.  The peak rate I am leaving blank.  In 2001 I was
>
>down a full quarter of my general peak rate from the prior 25 years or
>so.  Could it be the expected decline in Geminid rates has started?  It
>got
>steadily better in my earlier years (1963 - 1975), then held quite
>steady
>at 80 - 95/hr (1979 - 1996).  In 2001 I was back down to 64/hr at best,
>a
>thumping drop in just a few years despite a dark sky.
>
>The best Geminid rates come as the radiant transits the meridian at
>roughly
>2 AM local time, plus about 2 hours either side of that.  The peak
>period
>seems to be a day wide, so it is not necessary to be in any particular
>time
>zone to see the top rates.
>
>In each entry below appear the earth quadrant with the radiant at its
>highest, UT date and hour (leaning to the eastern side of each quadrant
>;
>the American one I am located in here), double-dated night, and expected
>
>rates with other notes.  Rates are for dark skies and should be good for
>
>all latitudes north of roughly 10N.  Urban watchers will see only a
>handful
>of Geminids during the faint-meteor periods, but will fare much better
>when
>bright Geminids are around.  Some earlier and later dates are also given
>
>with general rates.
>
>December 9/10, 10/hr Geminids everywhere.
>
>December 10/11, 15-20/hr Geminids but getting higher in Europe.
>
>America, Dec 12, 07 UT, Dec 11/12 -- 35 - 40/hr.
>
>Pacific, Dec 12, 13 UT, Dec 11/12 east, Dec 12/13 west -- 40/hr.
>
>Asia, Dec 12, 19 UT, Dec 12/13 -- 40/hr.
>
>Europe, Dec 13, 01 UT, Dec 12/13 -- 40/hr early, may notice increase
>late.
>
>America, Dec 13, 07 UT, Dec 12/13 -- peak rates, mostly faint.
>
>Pacific, Dec 13, 13 UT, Dec 12/13 east, Dec 13/14 west -- peak rates,
>brighter ones increasing.
>
>Asia, Dec 13, 19 UT, Dec 13/14 -- peak rates, both bright and faint.
>
>Europe, Dec 14, 01 UT, Dec 13/14 -- peak rates, both bright and faint,
>may
>notice decline in rates by end of night.
>
>America, Dec 14, 07 UT, Dec 13/14 -- rate 35 - 40/hr, mostly bright
>early,
>all bright but rapidly falling rate later.
>
>Pacific, Dec 14, 13 UT, Dec 13/14 east, Dec 14/15 west -- 15/hr, a few
>bright early, faint ones then take over.
>
>Asia, Dec 14, 19 UT, Dec 14/15 -- 15/hr, mostly faint.
>
>Europe, Dec 15, 01 UT, Dec 14/15 -- 10 - 15/hr, mostly faint.
>
>America, Dec 15, 07 UT, Dec 14/15 -- 10/hr, mostly faint.
>
>December 15/16, 5/hr everywhere.
>
>December 16/17, 3 - 4/hr everywhere.
>
>
>Norman
>
>
>
>
>Norman W. McLeod III
>Staff Advisor
>American Meteor Society
>
>Fort Myers, Florida
>nmcleod at peganet.com
>---
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>
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Norman W. McLeod III
Staff Advisor
American Meteor Society

Fort Myers, Florida
nmcleod at peganet.com