(meteorobs) Geminid followup and more

Thu Dec 9 10:17:20 EST 2004

Peter,

What about the predictions from Bill Cooke that were released through
Spaceweather that shows most Midwest to eastern cities in the United
States were to have anywhere from 12-20 meteors every 15 minutes between
Midnight and 3a.m. on the morning of the 14th.  That's more than one
meteor per minute which calculates to a very good shower.  I know
predicting number of meteors is not an exact science, but there is quite
a bit of difference in yours and Bills.

David Stine
Observing Chairman
Astronomy Club of Tulsa

-----Original Message-----
From: meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org
[mailto:meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org] On Behalf Of Norman W. McLeod
III
Sent: Thursday, December 09, 2004 1:55 AM
To: Global Meteor Observing Forum
Cc: bigshotslingshot at yahoo.com
Subject: (meteorobs) Geminid followup and more

Peter,

>         First of all, thanks for the numbers!  Does this mean that we
in
>America have no chance of seeing an optimal bright peak this year?

That's right.  I have seen this go on every leap year back to 1968.  But
it 
puts the American quadrant in the most interesting place for Dec 
13/14.  The brightness of the Geminids that night is dramatic, mostly
first 
magnitude and better, as well as their rich coloring (for those that
don't 
see just white.)  We have to accept the high numbers but faintness of
the 
Geminids on Dec 12/13.

As far as hearing meteors goes, I have yet to hear one despite observing

since 1960 and recording about 90000 meteors.  That certainly doesn't
mean 
sounds aren't real.  Some people are more sensitive to electrophonic
sounds 
than others.  The report we just read about the 1966 Leonids seems 
strange.  I was watching that night from Tallahassee, Florida and didn't

hear a thing despite a rate of 30/minute by dawn.  I have been unlucky
with 
several Florida fireballs over the years also, being too far from all of

them for the usual air-conducted sound that others did report hearing.

 From Pete Bias,

As an aside, how does one get a +1 or +3 magnitude for black 
meteors?  Wouldn't these magnitudes necessarily have to be brighter than

the surrounding sky and therefore look bright, not black?

it's hard to put anything tangible on this.  Just some kind of personal 
impression, perhaps thinking some of the moving black spots look larger 
than others, then comparing their size with the spikey or glare size of 
stars of known magnitude.  And I agree with an earlier post about blind 
spots not being visible as blackness against the sky.

While we're at it, I haven't seen a distinct curved meteor either.
Don't 
be fooled by a long meteor going parallel to the horizon and seeming to 
rise and fall.  The path is still straight.  Hold up a straightedge
along 
the meteor path and see for yourself.

As for seeing more meteors in general, go for a darker sky !  Perception

you are stuck with what you are born with so you may see systematically 
more than average, or less.  I am just average in perception, and it
wasn't 
any better when I was younger.

Norman

>-----Original Message-----
>From: meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org On Behalf Of Norman W. McLeod III
>
>I decided to do a worldwide quadrant-oriented set of Geminid meteor
>predictions this year, based on what I have seen here in sampling all
>parts
>of the activity curve.  The peak rate I am leaving blank.  In 2001 I
was
>
>down a full quarter of my general peak rate from the prior 25 years or
>so.  Could it be the expected decline in Geminid rates has started?  It
>got
>steadily better in my earlier years (1963 - 1975), then held quite
>steady
>at 80 - 95/hr (1979 - 1996).  In 2001 I was back down to 64/hr at best,
>a
>thumping drop in just a few years despite a dark sky.
>
>The best Geminid rates come as the radiant transits the meridian at
>roughly
>2 AM local time, plus about 2 hours either side of that.  The peak
>period
>seems to be a day wide, so it is not necessary to be in any particular
>time
>zone to see the top rates.
>
>In each entry below appear the earth quadrant with the radiant at its
>highest, UT date and hour (leaning to the eastern side of each quadrant
>;
>the American one I am located in here), double-dated night, and
expected
>
>rates with other notes.  Rates are for dark skies and should be good
for
>
>all latitudes north of roughly 10N.  Urban watchers will see only a
>handful
>of Geminids during the faint-meteor periods, but will fare much better
>when
>bright Geminids are around.  Some earlier and later dates are also
given
>
>with general rates.
>
>December 9/10, 10/hr Geminids everywhere.
>
>December 10/11, 15-20/hr Geminids but getting higher in Europe.
>
>America, Dec 12, 07 UT, Dec 11/12 -- 35 - 40/hr.
>
>Pacific, Dec 12, 13 UT, Dec 11/12 east, Dec 12/13 west -- 40/hr.
>
>Asia, Dec 12, 19 UT, Dec 12/13 -- 40/hr.
>
>Europe, Dec 13, 01 UT, Dec 12/13 -- 40/hr early, may notice increase
>late.
>
>America, Dec 13, 07 UT, Dec 12/13 -- peak rates, mostly faint.
>
>Pacific, Dec 13, 13 UT, Dec 12/13 east, Dec 13/14 west -- peak rates,
>brighter ones increasing.
>
>Asia, Dec 13, 19 UT, Dec 13/14 -- peak rates, both bright and faint.
>
>Europe, Dec 14, 01 UT, Dec 13/14 -- peak rates, both bright and faint,
>may
>notice decline in rates by end of night.
>
>America, Dec 14, 07 UT, Dec 13/14 -- rate 35 - 40/hr, mostly bright
>early,
>all bright but rapidly falling rate later.
>
>Pacific, Dec 14, 13 UT, Dec 13/14 east, Dec 14/15 west -- 15/hr, a few
>bright early, faint ones then take over.
>
>Asia, Dec 14, 19 UT, Dec 14/15 -- 15/hr, mostly faint.
>
>Europe, Dec 15, 01 UT, Dec 14/15 -- 10 - 15/hr, mostly faint.
>
>America, Dec 15, 07 UT, Dec 14/15 -- 10/hr, mostly faint.
>
>December 15/16, 5/hr everywhere.
>
>December 16/17, 3 - 4/hr everywhere.
>
>
>Norman
>
>
>
>
>Norman W. McLeod III
>Staff Advisor
>American Meteor Society
>
>Fort Myers, Florida
>nmcleod at peganet.com
>---
>Mailing list meteorobs
>meteorobs at meteorobs.org
>http://lists.meteorobs.org/mailman/listinfo/meteorobs
>
>
>---
>Mailing list meteorobs
>meteorobs at meteorobs.org
>http://lists.meteorobs.org/mailman/listinfo/meteorobs

Norman W. McLeod III
Staff Advisor
American Meteor Society

Fort Myers, Florida
nmcleod at peganet.com
---
Mailing list meteorobs
meteorobs at meteorobs.org
http://lists.meteorobs.org/mailman/listinfo/meteorobs