(meteorobs) Geminid followup and more

[Cooke, Bill]

My calculations are derived from the time of maximum and the maximum ZHR
given by the IMO; there is no leap year error, at least in the calculations,
i.e. a solar longitude of 262.2 does indeed correspond to December 13 at
22:20 UT. The only assumption I made was for the half width of the shower,
which I set at 12 hours, based on my experience. 

I am not saying that Mr. McLeod is wrong; indeed, he may well be right. My
point here is that the IMO numbers give peak rates on the night of the 13th
for most of the U.S., save Alaska and Hawaii, which should experience more
activity the night before.

It'll be interesting to see the numbers after the shower. Ya'll get out and
observe - the more data, the more we learn, and the better next year's
forecast.

Wishing everyone clear skies!

Bill

-----Original Message-----
From: Norman W. McLeod III [mailto:nmcleod at peganet.com] 
Sent: Thursday, December 09, 2004 9:45 AM
To: Global Meteor Observing Forum
Subject: RE: (meteorobs) Geminid followup and more

David,

>What about the predictions from Bill Cooke that were released through 
>Spaceweather that shows most Midwest to eastern cities in the United 
>States were to have anywhere from 12-20 meteors every 15 minutes 
>between Midnight and 3a.m. on the morning of the 14th.  That's more 
>than one meteor per minute which calculates to a very good shower.

Norman here again.  I have to regard Bill's prediction as being a day late.
In a leap year the action comes one day sooner.  In years other than leap
years for the American region we do see the best rates on Dec 13/14.  The
Geminids are a very stable shower and I have yet to see a real surprise out
of it.  Just going by experience !

Norman




Norman W. McLeod III
Staff Advisor
American Meteor Society

Fort Myers, Florida
nmcleod at peganet.com
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