(meteorobs) For history

[Sergey Shanov]

Hi,
It was interesting to watch as amount of the messages on Meteorobs per the last days sharply has falled. Yes, really, it is necessary to disjoint professional simulation and simulation of the amateurs of astronomy. Our models and the programs (Mikiya and Sergey) can predict activity of meteor showers (Leonids, Draconids, Perseids...). However, than the cometary trail is old, the more indefiniteness of results, because there are unaccounted and poorly investigated effects (Moon, satellites of Jupiter, effect Poynting-Robertson...). To be engaged in prediction it is necessary cautiously. Case 2004 June Bootids much more interesting and composite for study (than Perseids 1 rev.). The Earth has met with old trails, doubly by dispelled Earth (in 1910 and 1916). Meteoric maximas diffuse. It is difficult at once for describing by any model. All this is necessary for studying in details in the future! We (Sergeys) have find this case, but were not sure in the estimates. And we came to you (Esko, Jeremie, Meteorobs). We not took into account not perihelion ejections (this innovation was made absolutely recently). Gradually we shall refine our possibilities. And will to evaluate meteor showers more safely. In our brief browse two comets 15P and 45P are retrieved which can generate new (earlier not observed) meteor showers! These estimates still not sure, but interesting enough to detail research already now.
Sergey

  > Congratulations! It's really a wonderful news. And can this models 
  > be use in other stream? For example, Perseids of this year... :-)

  Thank! I did some evaluations 2004 Perseids (trail 1 rev.) earlier. I offer you to compare results Esko and Sergeys:

              Time (UT)     rD-Re
  Esko     August 11 20:54  0.0013 (0.0012 it is a corrigendum on web page)
  Sergeys  August 11 20:53  0.0013

  > We have found share solution. Not in essence, who first and who as evaluated Bootids. It is important, that the different models and methods were used. In this history is interesting also that the very big work was made by the amateurs of astronomy.
  I shall be returned to Meteorobs only in some days.
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