(meteorobs) Perseid outburst prediction this year?

[Geert Barentsen]

Hello meteorobs,

First, let me say thank you to Esko, Sergey, Jeremie, Rob and many others 
for the interesting e-mails lately!!  In addition, many thanks to Lew for 
bringing up topics and managing this excellent list!


Here are some additional remarks concerning the Perseids:

* The favourable phase of the moon in 2004 (~15% illumination on august 12) 
seems to be rather unique. Similar chances for enhanced activity caused by 
Jupiter/Saturn perturbations will have to deal with a lot of lunar 
interference. The conditions will be moderate in 2005 (40% illumination) 
and 2012 (30%), but bad in 2008 (80%), 2009 (70%), 2016 (60%) and 2028 
(70%). It may be difficult to gather and analyse visual data in those 
years. It must be a conspiracy :-(

* A question to observers: do you have any special plans to observe the 
Perseids? Members of our Belgian group will observe from different places 
in Romania and France!

* August will be a perfect month to "tell the world" about meteor showers! 
If you are involved in some astronomical organisation or (public) 
observatory, why not make a short Perseid press release and send it out to 
the local media? TV/Radio/Newspapers often love to interview experienced 
amateurs or observers about a subject like this, but rarely take the 
initiative to look for one... unless you send them a communication! 
(However, try to avoid terms like "enhanced activity", "extra outburst", 
etc... false hypes may easily damage meteor science.)

* Let's tell our deepsky- and astrophotography-friends about telescopic and 
photographic meteor observing! Many amateurs often capture meteors during 
the Perseid maximum, but rarely use their equipment to "observe" (= 
retrieve the exact time, coordinates, velocity, etc... of a recorded 
meteor). Accurate plots may learn us more about the Perseid radiant 
structure! Did you know that you can download the entire photographic 
handbook from http://www.imo.net/photo/ ?


Please share your opinions! The Perseids will be here in 68 days from now, 
so let's get busy :-)
Many greetings,
Geert




At 20:42 25-5-2004, you wrote:
>The latest issue of WGN (the newsletter of IMO - the
>International Meteor Organization) is out, and among
>other interesting-sounding items in the announcement
>from editor Chris Trayner, I noticed the following:
>
>  Perseid one-revolution outburst in 2004
>    Esko Lyytinen and Tom Van Flandern
>
>  The scatter of orbital semimajor axes from a Perseid stream model
>    Kondrat'eva E.D. and Ishmukhametova M.G.
>
>Esko is among our readers, as are several other well-
>informed pros and amateur meteor scientists. So I was
>impelled to ask - what ARE the latest predictions for
>a Perseid outburst this year?
>
>
>Clear skies all!
>
>Lew Gramer, fresh back from the West Texas desert
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Chris Trayner [mailto:c.trayner at leeds.ac.uk]
>Sent: Tuesday, May 25, 2004 8:14 AM
>To: IMO-News mailing list
>Subject: [IMO-News] WGN 32:2 in press
>
>
>WGN - Journal of the International Meteor Organization
>
>The new issue of this Journal is now in press. It will be posted
>shortly; subscribers should receive it soon.
>
>
>The Journal contents are below.
>
>Editorial - comics, comets and meteors
>   Chris Trayner
>
>
>Solar Longitudes for 2004
>   Compiled by Rainer Arlt
>
>
>International Meteor Conference 2004
>September 23-26 in Varna, Bulgaria
>   Eva Bojurova and Valentin Velkov
>
>
>Photographic observations of the EN291103A and B fireballs
>over the Czech Republic
>   Pavel Spurny
>
>
>Trajectory and orbit of the EN200204 Laskarzew fireball
>   Pavel Spurny, Arkadiusz Olech and Piotr Kedzierski
>
>
>Perseid one-revolution outburst in 2004
>   Esko Lyytinen and Tom Van Flandern
>
>
>The scatter of orbital semimajor axes from a Perseid stream model
>   Kondrat'eva E.D. and Ishmukhametova M.G.
>
>
>Almost 50 years of visual Geminid observations
>   Juergen Rendtel
>
>
>The fireball stream of the Tagish Lake meteorite
>   Alexandra Terentjeva and Sergej Barabanov
>
>
>Meteor Beliefs Project: a little light anniversary entertainment
>   Andrei Dorian Gheorghe and Alastair McBeath
>
>
>
>Those who do not subscribe to this Journal, but wish to,
>should see the IMO's web site http://www.imo.net and
>follow the link to WGN. As well as subscribing to WGN,
>you can apply to join IMO at the same time. We encourage
>you to do this.
>
>Chris Trayner
>Editor
>
>
>
>_______________________________________________
>Mailing list meteorobs
>meteorobs at meteorobs.org
>http://lists.meteorobs.org/mailman/listinfo/meteorobs