(meteorobs) Venus Transit Weather Prospects

[Skywayinc at aol.com]

Over the past several days I have been issuing weather outlooks for next 
Tuesday's Transit of Venus for those amateurs living in the Greater New York Area. 
 Apparently, these outlooks have been getting wide circulation, to the point 
where our own Lew Gramer had one forwarded to him!  Lew contacted me and said 
that " . . . it's a bit off-topic  for 'meteorobs' (and of regional interest 
only), please feel free to add the Meteor forum to your recipient list for 
these forecasts - I doubt any of our readers will mind!"  

Done, Lew!
-- joe r.
------------------------------

        "The special details of the 'approaching' transit of June 8 of the 
year 2004 have already been calculated with precision, as well as those of the 
transit of June 6, 2012, and we might almost say that the various expeditions 
are arranged, with the exception of the names of the astronomers who will take 
part in them."
                                                         
                                                -- Camille Flammarion
                                                    Written in 1887 for his 
book                                                             "Popular 
Astronomy"

The weather prospects for Tuesday morning have taken a bit of a turn for the 
worse so far as the Northeast US is concerned.  The latest model guidance is 
now suggesting that our old nemesis . . . the cold front predicted to pass 
through our area on Monday . . . will now only get about as far as the Greater New 
York Area, before either getting "hung-up" or shifting back to the north as a 
warm front by Tuesday morning.

Generally speaking, by Transit Time on Tuesday, the front may stretch from 
about Rochester, NY southeast to about to White Plains, NY.  But there could be 
a variation of perhaps a hundred miles or more either north or south of this 
projected position.  

The weather that is usually associated in the early morning with a 
quasi-stationary or warm frontal zone are low stratus clouds and areas of dense fog near 
and to the north of the front . . . while areas to the south of the front may 
have somewhat less cloud cover, but hazy conditions.  In fact . . . the kind 
of weather where the Sun's brilliant light is so significantly attenuated by 
haze to the point where it rises like an orange or red ball.  

So . . . that is where we stand at the moment.  Exactly where will this 
frontal line be positioned on Tuesday morning?  

If the front ends up directly over or just south of your neighborhood, I 
wouldn't give much more than a 30% of a view of the Sun on Tuesday morning.  

If it is to the north of you, then perhaps you'd have up to 50 or 60% chance 
of some visibility, and that would probably be an orange or red Sun through 
haze (maybe you wont need that Mylar or welder's glass after all?).

Places in the Northeast US that might be mainly free of any adverse effects 
from this front are probably up over central and northern New England.

I should explain here why the forecasts have been so variable over these past 
few days:  There is an anomalous feature on the National Map: an upper-level 
low pressure system over the Sierra Nevadas . . . something that indeed is 
most unusual for the month of June.  

All the computer models have been having a tough time in trying to properly 
forecast both the position and strength of this system.  As such . . . like a 
domino effect of sorts . . . the forecasts regarding this storm over the 
southwestern states are having a significant effect on the positioning of weather 
systems farther "downrange" (to the east).  In addition, there is a 
strengthening "Bermuda High" out over the Atlantic Ocean, which is trying to expand 
westward.  

Normally, I think most of us would not be overly concerned with the exact 
positioning of a particular weather front several days in advance . . . but in 
this very important case, every deviation from a previous outlook is being 
magnified, at least in the minds of local astronomers.

It is a problem I don't even think ol' Flammarion could have anticipated!   :/
-- joe rao