(meteorobs) Perseid outburst prediction this year?

putmi michelvandeputte at hotmail.com
Sun Jun 6 05:43:35 EDT 2004


Hi Geert, meteorobs,

Will depend on the local weather
if it is perfectly clear (I mean 
perfectly ; no moister, hazy or other stuff) during the period 10-15 
august. I may stay in Belgium, some where in the dark Ardennes ? If 
not : I will travel into southern (France) or South-eastern 
directions (Southern Germany). We shall see

11-12 august will be the most important night in 2004 for the meteor 
observers. I am really looking forward to see a new enhancement of 
its activity. 
We really need some good data. This can contain a great value for 
calculating the next chances of enhanced activity after the future 
perturbations by Jupiter and or Saturn. 
For the moment I am busy with a Dutch guide for the Belgian 
association of Astronomy (VVS) about the summer showers and 
especially about the Perseids and the return of the 1 revolution 
dust trail. 

But first ; let's enjoy the minor eclipse of the Sun
by Venus !! The 
wait is almost over. Weather Forecasts are great ! 

Michel Vandeputte 
VVS Belgium meteor Section 
Dutch meteor society. 




--- In meteorobs at yahoogroups.com, Geert Barentsen 
<geert.barentsen at t...> wrote:
> Hello meteorobs,
> 
> First, let me say thank you to Esko, Sergey, Jeremie, Rob and many 
others 
> for the interesting e-mails lately!!  In addition, many thanks to 
Lew for 
> bringing up topics and managing this excellent list!
> 
> 
> Here are some additional remarks concerning the Perseids:
> 
> * The favourable phase of the moon in 2004 (~15% illumination on 
august 12) 
> seems to be rather unique. Similar chances for enhanced activity 
caused by 
> Jupiter/Saturn perturbations will have to deal with a lot of lunar 
> interference. The conditions will be moderate in 2005 (40% 
illumination) 
> and 2012 (30%), but bad in 2008 (80%), 2009 (70%), 2016 (60%) and 
2028 
> (70%). It may be difficult to gather and analyse visual data in 
those 
> years. It must be a conspiracy :-(
> 
> * A question to observers: do you have any special plans to 
observe the 
> Perseids? Members of our Belgian group will observe from different 
places 
> in Romania and France!
> 
> * August will be a perfect month to "tell the world" about meteor 
showers! 
> If you are involved in some astronomical organisation or (public) 
> observatory, why not make a short Perseid press release and send 
it out to 
> the local media? TV/Radio/Newspapers often love to interview 
experienced 
> amateurs or observers about a subject like this, but rarely take 
the 
> initiative to look for one... unless you send them a 
communication! 
> (However, try to avoid terms like "enhanced activity", "extra 
outburst", 
> etc... false hypes may easily damage meteor science.)
> 
> * Let's tell our deepsky- and astrophotography-friends about 
telescopic and 
> photographic meteor observing! Many amateurs often capture meteors 
during 
> the Perseid maximum, but rarely use their equipment to "observe" 
(= 
> retrieve the exact time, coordinates, velocity, etc... of a 
recorded 
> meteor). Accurate plots may learn us more about the Perseid 
radiant 
> structure! Did you know that you can download the entire 
photographic 
> handbook from http://www.imo.net/photo/ ?
> 
> 
> Please share your opinions! The Perseids will be here in 68 days 
from now, 
> so let's get busy :-)
> Many greetings,
> Geert
> 
> 
> 
> 
> At 20:42 25-5-2004, you wrote:
> >The latest issue of WGN (the newsletter of IMO - the
> >International Meteor Organization) is out, and among
> >other interesting-sounding items in the announcement
> >from editor Chris Trayner, I noticed the following:
> >
> >  Perseid one-revolution outburst in 2004
> >    Esko Lyytinen and Tom Van Flandern
> >
> >  The scatter of orbital semimajor axes from a Perseid stream 
model
> >    Kondrat'eva E.D. and Ishmukhametova M.G.
> >
> >Esko is among our readers, as are several other well-
> >informed pros and amateur meteor scientists. So I was
> >impelled to ask - what ARE the latest predictions for
> >a Perseid outburst this year?
> >
> >
> >Clear skies all!
> >
> >Lew Gramer, fresh back from the West Texas desert
> >
> >
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: Chris Trayner [mailto:c.trayner at l...]
> >Sent: Tuesday, May 25, 2004 8:14 AM
> >To: IMO-News mailing list
> >Subject: [IMO-News] WGN 32:2 in press
> >
> >
> >WGN - Journal of the International Meteor Organization
> >
> >The new issue of this Journal is now in press. It will be posted
> >shortly; subscribers should receive it soon.
> >
> >
> >The Journal contents are below.
> >
> >Editorial - comics, comets and meteors
> >   Chris Trayner
> >
> >
> >Solar Longitudes for 2004
> >   Compiled by Rainer Arlt
> >
> >
> >International Meteor Conference 2004
> >September 23-26 in Varna, Bulgaria
> >   Eva Bojurova and Valentin Velkov
> >
> >
> >Photographic observations of the EN291103A and B fireballs
> >over the Czech Republic
> >   Pavel Spurny
> >
> >
> >Trajectory and orbit of the EN200204 Laskarzew fireball
> >   Pavel Spurny, Arkadiusz Olech and Piotr Kedzierski
> >
> >
> >Perseid one-revolution outburst in 2004
> >   Esko Lyytinen and Tom Van Flandern
> >
> >
> >The scatter of orbital semimajor axes from a Perseid stream model
> >   Kondrat'eva E.D. and Ishmukhametova M.G.
> >
> >
> >Almost 50 years of visual Geminid observations
> >   Juergen Rendtel
> >
> >
> >The fireball stream of the Tagish Lake meteorite
> >   Alexandra Terentjeva and Sergej Barabanov
> >
> >
> >Meteor Beliefs Project: a little light anniversary entertainment
> >   Andrei Dorian Gheorghe and Alastair McBeath
> >
> >
> >
> >Those who do not subscribe to this Journal, but wish to,
> >should see the IMO's web site http://www.imo.net and
> >follow the link to WGN. As well as subscribing to WGN,
> >you can apply to join IMO at the same time. We encourage
> >you to do this.
> >
> >Chris Trayner
> >Editor
> >
> >
> >
> >_______________________________________________
> >Mailing list meteorobs
> >meteorobs at m...
> >http://lists.meteorobs.org/mailman/listinfo/meteorobs
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
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> meteorobs at m...
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