(meteorobs) Perseid outburst prediction this year?
putmi
michelvandeputte at hotmail.com
Sun Jun 6 05:43:35 EDT 2004
Hi Geert, meteorobs,
Will depend on the local weather
if it is perfectly clear (I mean
perfectly ; no moister, hazy or other stuff) during the period 10-15
august. I may stay in Belgium, some where in the dark Ardennes ? If
not : I will travel into southern (France) or South-eastern
directions (Southern Germany). We shall see
11-12 august will be the most important night in 2004 for the meteor
observers. I am really looking forward to see a new enhancement of
its activity.
We really need some good data. This can contain a great value for
calculating the next chances of enhanced activity after the future
perturbations by Jupiter and or Saturn.
For the moment I am busy with a Dutch guide for the Belgian
association of Astronomy (VVS) about the summer showers and
especially about the Perseids and the return of the 1 revolution
dust trail.
But first ; let's enjoy the minor eclipse of the Sun
by Venus !! The
wait is almost over. Weather Forecasts are great !
Michel Vandeputte
VVS Belgium meteor Section
Dutch meteor society.
--- In meteorobs at yahoogroups.com, Geert Barentsen
<geert.barentsen at t...> wrote:
> Hello meteorobs,
>
> First, let me say thank you to Esko, Sergey, Jeremie, Rob and many
others
> for the interesting e-mails lately!! In addition, many thanks to
Lew for
> bringing up topics and managing this excellent list!
>
>
> Here are some additional remarks concerning the Perseids:
>
> * The favourable phase of the moon in 2004 (~15% illumination on
august 12)
> seems to be rather unique. Similar chances for enhanced activity
caused by
> Jupiter/Saturn perturbations will have to deal with a lot of lunar
> interference. The conditions will be moderate in 2005 (40%
illumination)
> and 2012 (30%), but bad in 2008 (80%), 2009 (70%), 2016 (60%) and
2028
> (70%). It may be difficult to gather and analyse visual data in
those
> years. It must be a conspiracy :-(
>
> * A question to observers: do you have any special plans to
observe the
> Perseids? Members of our Belgian group will observe from different
places
> in Romania and France!
>
> * August will be a perfect month to "tell the world" about meteor
showers!
> If you are involved in some astronomical organisation or (public)
> observatory, why not make a short Perseid press release and send
it out to
> the local media? TV/Radio/Newspapers often love to interview
experienced
> amateurs or observers about a subject like this, but rarely take
the
> initiative to look for one... unless you send them a
communication!
> (However, try to avoid terms like "enhanced activity", "extra
outburst",
> etc... false hypes may easily damage meteor science.)
>
> * Let's tell our deepsky- and astrophotography-friends about
telescopic and
> photographic meteor observing! Many amateurs often capture meteors
during
> the Perseid maximum, but rarely use their equipment to "observe"
(=
> retrieve the exact time, coordinates, velocity, etc... of a
recorded
> meteor). Accurate plots may learn us more about the Perseid
radiant
> structure! Did you know that you can download the entire
photographic
> handbook from http://www.imo.net/photo/ ?
>
>
> Please share your opinions! The Perseids will be here in 68 days
from now,
> so let's get busy :-)
> Many greetings,
> Geert
>
>
>
>
> At 20:42 25-5-2004, you wrote:
> >The latest issue of WGN (the newsletter of IMO - the
> >International Meteor Organization) is out, and among
> >other interesting-sounding items in the announcement
> >from editor Chris Trayner, I noticed the following:
> >
> > Perseid one-revolution outburst in 2004
> > Esko Lyytinen and Tom Van Flandern
> >
> > The scatter of orbital semimajor axes from a Perseid stream
model
> > Kondrat'eva E.D. and Ishmukhametova M.G.
> >
> >Esko is among our readers, as are several other well-
> >informed pros and amateur meteor scientists. So I was
> >impelled to ask - what ARE the latest predictions for
> >a Perseid outburst this year?
> >
> >
> >Clear skies all!
> >
> >Lew Gramer, fresh back from the West Texas desert
> >
> >
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: Chris Trayner [mailto:c.trayner at l...]
> >Sent: Tuesday, May 25, 2004 8:14 AM
> >To: IMO-News mailing list
> >Subject: [IMO-News] WGN 32:2 in press
> >
> >
> >WGN - Journal of the International Meteor Organization
> >
> >The new issue of this Journal is now in press. It will be posted
> >shortly; subscribers should receive it soon.
> >
> >
> >The Journal contents are below.
> >
> >Editorial - comics, comets and meteors
> > Chris Trayner
> >
> >
> >Solar Longitudes for 2004
> > Compiled by Rainer Arlt
> >
> >
> >International Meteor Conference 2004
> >September 23-26 in Varna, Bulgaria
> > Eva Bojurova and Valentin Velkov
> >
> >
> >Photographic observations of the EN291103A and B fireballs
> >over the Czech Republic
> > Pavel Spurny
> >
> >
> >Trajectory and orbit of the EN200204 Laskarzew fireball
> > Pavel Spurny, Arkadiusz Olech and Piotr Kedzierski
> >
> >
> >Perseid one-revolution outburst in 2004
> > Esko Lyytinen and Tom Van Flandern
> >
> >
> >The scatter of orbital semimajor axes from a Perseid stream model
> > Kondrat'eva E.D. and Ishmukhametova M.G.
> >
> >
> >Almost 50 years of visual Geminid observations
> > Juergen Rendtel
> >
> >
> >The fireball stream of the Tagish Lake meteorite
> > Alexandra Terentjeva and Sergej Barabanov
> >
> >
> >Meteor Beliefs Project: a little light anniversary entertainment
> > Andrei Dorian Gheorghe and Alastair McBeath
> >
> >
> >
> >Those who do not subscribe to this Journal, but wish to,
> >should see the IMO's web site http://www.imo.net and
> >follow the link to WGN. As well as subscribing to WGN,
> >you can apply to join IMO at the same time. We encourage
> >you to do this.
> >
> >Chris Trayner
> >Editor
> >
> >
> >
> >_______________________________________________
> >Mailing list meteorobs
> >meteorobs at m...
> >http://lists.meteorobs.org/mailman/listinfo/meteorobs
>
>
> _______________________________________________
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