(meteorobs) Perseid outburst prediction this year?

[putmi]

Perturbations on the 1 REV dust trail (material from 1862) thanks to 
a close approach with Jupiter in 2003 brings the meteoroids closer 
to the earth's orbit. Predicted outburst by E. Lyytinen : 11 august 
2004 - 20.54 UT with a possible FWHM of 45 minutes. 


http://leonid.arc.nasa.gov/index.html
http://www.metaresearch.org/solar%20system/perseid/perseids.asp

Are the other experts already busy with predictions on the 2004 
Perseids ? 

Long trains,

Michel. 


--- In meteorobs at yahoogroups.com, KCStarguy at a... wrote:
> The Perseids have been such a dismal failure the past few years 
(at least 
> what I saw)-what makes anyone think the shower this year may be 
better (orbit 
> perturbation or what?)
> 
> Dr. Eric Flescher (kcstarguy at a...,  dreric1kansas at a...), 
> Olathe, KS. USA
>  7 total solar eclipses and counting: 
> webmaster Eric's Black Sun Eclipse website - 
> <http://members.aol.com/kcstarguy/blacksun/eclipse.htm.
> >webmaster,  Satori Astronomy website 
> 
<http://members.aol.com/kcstarguy/satoriastronomy/satoriastronomy.htm
> -editor- Black Sun eclipse newsletter 
> (eclipse/astronomy news) to subscribe send email to 
> blacksuneclipse-subscribe at yahoogroups.com
> 
> 
> 
> In a message dated 6/6/04 11:05:05 AM, meteorobs-request at m... 
writes:
> 
> << Message: 3
> Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 09:43:35 -0000
> From: "putmi" <michelvandeputte at h...>
> Subject: Re: (meteorobs) Perseid outburst prediction this year?
> To: Global Meteor Observing Forum <meteorobs at m...>
> Message-ID: <c9up08+qp11 at e...>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1
> 
> Hi Geert, meteorobs,
> 
> Will depend on the local weather…if it is perfectly clear (I 
mean 
> perfectly ; no moister, hazy or other stuff) during the period 10-
15 
> august. I may stay in Belgium, some where in the dark Ardennes ? 
If 
> not : I will travel into southern (France) or South-eastern 
> directions (Southern Germany). We shall see…
> 11-12 august will be the most important night in 2004 for the 
meteor 
> observers. I am really looking forward to see a new enhancement of 
> its activity. 
> We really need some good data. This can contain a great value for 
> calculating the next chances of enhanced activity after the future 
> perturbations by Jupiter and or Saturn. 
> For the moment I am busy with a Dutch guide for the Belgian 
> association of Astronomy (VVS) about the summer showers and 
> especially about the Perseids and the return of the 1 revolution 
> dust trail. 
> 
> But first ; let's enjoy the minor eclipse of the Sun…by Venus !! 
The 
> wait is almost over. Weather Forecasts are great ! 
> 
> Michel Vandeputte 
> VVS Belgium meteor Section 
> Dutch meteor society. 
>  >>
> 
> _______________________________________________
> Mailing list meteorobs
> meteorobs at m...
> http://lists.meteorobs.org/mailman/listinfo/meteorobs