(meteorobs) Perseid outburst prediction this year?
jonesp0854 at yahoo.com
Mon Jun 7 09:03:07 EDT 2004
Thank you Eric, Wayne, Norman and any others who have urged caution when it comes to Perseid expectations. From what I have seen personally and from what others have reported in recent years, the stream is performing at a mere fraction of what it did back in the seventies and eighties. You are correct to point out all the many factors that come into play to downgrade observational results. Beginners get out with little or no experience and disappointment quickly sets in. Even more experienced observers tend to make the mistake of getting out too early in the night and giving up before the good stuff starts. In short, don't believe the hype: make the Perseids prove they can do something. Be skeptical. And, please, stay out until dawn, don't quit at 3 a.m. local time and call the shower a bust! What did you miss after you gave up?? And if they do not produce at least 250 an hour this year, they will be way below what many of us saw routinely from them in the late
seventies/early eighties. The Ps have a lot to prove.
Reagards, Paul in N FLA
KCStarguy at aol.com wrote:
The Perseids have been such a dismal failure the past few years (at least
what I saw)-what makes anyone think the shower this year may be better (orbit
perturbation or what?)
Dr. Eric Flescher (kcstarguy at aol.com, dreric1kansas at aol.com),
Olathe, KS. USA
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In a message dated 6/6/04 11:05:05 AM, meteorobs-request at meteorobs.org writes:
<< Message: 3
Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 09:43:35 -0000
Subject: Re: (meteorobs) Perseid outburst prediction this year?
To: Global Meteor Observing Forum
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1
Hi Geert, meteorobs,
Will depend on the local weatherâ¦if it is perfectly clear (I mean
perfectly ; no moister, hazy or other stuff) during the period 10-15
august. I may stay in Belgium, some where in the dark Ardennes ? If
not : I will travel into southern (France) or South-eastern
directions (Southern Germany). We shall seeâ¦
11-12 august will be the most important night in 2004 for the meteor
observers. I am really looking forward to see a new enhancement of
We really need some good data. This can contain a great value for
calculating the next chances of enhanced activity after the future
perturbations by Jupiter and or Saturn.
For the moment I am busy with a Dutch guide for the Belgian
association of Astronomy (VVS) about the summer showers and
especially about the Perseids and the return of the 1 revolution
But first ; let's enjoy the minor eclipse of the Sunâ¦by Venus !! The
wait is almost over. Weather Forecasts are great !
VVS Belgium meteor Section
Dutch meteor society.
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meteorobs at meteorobs.org
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