(meteorobs) Simulation and observations

[Sergey Shanov]

Hi,

1. This English abstract to our survey simulation trails of short-period
comets:
http://gelios-2002.narod.ru/docs/models/models.html

The attempt of survey simulation of trails from near-Earth short-period
comets is undertaken: Pons-Winnecke (7P), Finlay (15P),
Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova (45P), Hartley 2 (103P), Wilson-Harrington
(107P), P/2001 Q2 (Petriew), P/2003 KV2 (LINEAR). The purpose of
simulation: searching of unexplored collisions of cometary trails with
the Earth, and description of new interesting cases present in a nature.
The method of modeling described by Reznikov E. A. (USSR) and the method
of numerical integration based on the multi-step Adams procedure (DE
method by Shampine L. F. and Gordon M. K.) was used.

The 2004 June Bootid case:
The researches by Asher D. J., Emelyanenko V. V. are confirmed that the
1998 flash of activity of June Bootids was related with cometary trails,
including those in 2:1 resonance with Jupiter. It is found that during
the first quarter of XXI century the flash of June Bootids activity can
be caused by these trails (1808-1875). The case of 2004 June Bootids was
researched in more detail. It is found that June 23, 2004 can be an
inexpressive plateau a similar meteoric maximum. This part of trails was
quite strongly perturbed by the Earth in 1910 and 1916. And maybe this
fraction of trails was at about the edge of libration window during the
latest revolution and passed by Jupiter quite closely.

Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova (45P) case:
After the comet approach to Jupiter in 1983 (0.111 AU) there is a
probability of appearance of periodic meteor showers observed in
February (in the day sky) and in August (probable radiants are projected
onto Aquarids meteoric complex). The trails from 1938-2001 and
possibility of their collisions with the Earth up to 2030 are
researched. Cometary trails existing up to 1983 will form two zones
(meteoroids with argument of a perihelion about 270 degrees) which
intersect an orbit of the Earth. It is found that in August 2005 and
2015 there can be short-lived, probably inexpressive meteoric maxima.

Finlay (15P) case:
The moderate approaches of a comet to Jupiter (in September 1993 and May
2004) have shifted the orbit of this comet to that of the Earth. Young
cometary trails 1953-2002 were researched. For a southern hemisphere of
the Earth this meteor shower can appear similar to Draconids, with
expressive flashes of meteoric activity or even meteoric storms. The
meteoric maxima will happen in a broad band of solar longitudes. The
most interesting cases are related to 2021, 2027, 2034, 2041. More
detailed simulation will undoubtedly allow to detect the other
interesting cases of this meteor shower in XXI century as well.

Other cases:
The collisions of the Earth with the trails from comet Wilson-Harrington
(107P) in the first half of XXI century are improbable. An orbit of this
object and trails of XX century are steady. In case of new comets
Hartley 2 (103P), P/2001 Q2 (Petriew), P/2003 KV2 (LINEAR) 4 - 6
revolution trails were researched. Over the interval 2004 - 2049 trails
of these comets will not meet with the Earth.


2. There is amateur Russian (Byelorussian) web a page with radio
observations
2003 Leonids, Geminids, 2004 Quadrantids and of day time meteor showers of
June:
http://astroprogs.narod.ru
or immediately: http://www.astroprogs.narod.ru/radiomet.htm

Sergey