(meteorobs) Sergey Sahanov's predictions: Returning 2004 June Bootids:

[Lyytinen Esko]

Hi all,

Sergey Shanov emailed (signed also by Sergey Dubrovsky) to a number of
people his predictions (see at the end) last March. I 'replied to all'
my much delayed response on this today. Actually I had earlier
email-change with Sergey on this.

I have also Sergey's permission to submit this to meteorobs. The
original 'reply to all' was slightly altered.

I have made checks on Sergeys trail computations with my programs. I
have not computed all these trails, only four of them.
I found quite similar results than Sergey had, so I have all reason to
expect also the other trail data to be correct.

When reading Sergeys email originally, I didn't quite understand the
meaning of double or triple data lines for some of the trails. After my
own simulatons this became clear. The rD values of the trails change
quite quickly around the date in question. Typically the trails cross
the Earth orbit very nearby in about one to three days after the Earth
crossed the node-line, but at the date there is typically a
miss-distance of a few thousandths of AU:s.
If the Earth would arrive there a few days later, I would be quite
confident on the outburst to happen. Now the situation is not so good,
but I think it to be quite probable that there will be at least some
level activity. There are fortunately more than one trail involved. To
make a more detailed comparison with the 1998 outburst would need in our
model a more comprehensive "A2-modeling" that would take time because of
several trils involved. 

In my opinoin the date and time to look (where geographically possible)
for most probable June Bootids outbursts in 2004 is what that Sergey has
modeled and gave to us. With my small amount of modeling I can not be
sure, if there might be some other (unmodeled) trails to encounter in
some other day, so it is of course ok to try to look in other nights
too.

Sergey has also found encounters with some other comet trails (see in:
http://gelios-2002.narod.ru/docs/models/models.html
Even though we may not understand the language, the data in the tables
can be understood.) 
I have not verified these myself, but have all reason to believe the
modeling correct.
The miss-distances ( as delta_r ) with the comet 45P trails appear to be
quite big, but because of the very low inclination of the orbit, the
true separation of the trails from the Earth orbit are much smaller.

Esko

>>
Together with Sergey Dubrovski we have received solution 2004 June
Bootids (look the table). On our datas any trail does not come nearer to
the Earth enough. However, the element of orbits adjacent meteoroids
vary very fast and in some cases of a heightening of meteoric activity
can take place. All probable maximas envelope a continuous slice of time
of June 23 and, probably, will one plateau a similar maximum:

Date UT l Trail V m/s delta_r delta_t alpha delta Vg
2004 06 23 07:28 92,113 1863 +09,64 0,0015 -03,0 222,5 +46,8 14,13
2004 06 23 08:32 92,155 1858 +09,09 0,0006 -03,5 222,6 +46,7 14,12
2004 06 23 09:34 92,196 1852 +08,48 0,0000 -03,2 222,6 +46,7 14,12
2004 06 23 10:32 92,235 1847 +07,96 0,0000 -02,7 222,6 +46,7 14,12
2004 06 23 11:10 92,260 1841 +07,15 0,0000 -03,5 222,7 +46,6 14,11
2004 06 23 11:21 92,267 1841 +07,14 0,0000 -01,9 222,6 +46,7 14,12
2004 06 23 11:42 92,281 1836 +07,02 0,0000 -03,7 222,7 +46,6 14,11
2004 06 23 12:03 92,295 1836 +07,00 0,0000 -01,4 222,6 +46,7 14,12
2004 06 23 12:12 92,301 1830 +07,12 0,0000 -04,6 222,7 +46,5 14,09
2004 06 23 12:17 92,304 1819 +08,58 0,0000 -11,4 222,8 +46,2 14,05
2004 06 23 12:42 92,321 1825 +07,53 0,0000 -06,2 222,7 +46,4 14,07
2004 06 23 12:56 92,330 1830 +07,08 0,0000 -01,2 222,6 +46,6 14,11
2004 06 23 13:05 92,336 1836 +07,01 0,0031 00,0 223,5 +46,5 14,16
2004 06 23 13:39 92,359 1830 +07,09 0,0025 00,0 223,4 +46,3 14,14
2004 06 23 14:00 92,373 1825 +07,48 0,0000 -01,0 222,5 +46,6 14,10
2004 06 23 14:43 92,401 1825 +07,49 0,0025 00,0 223,6 +46,4 14,13
2004 06 23 15:28 92,431 1819 +08,52 0,0000 -00,9 222,5 +46,5 14,10
2004 06 23 16:06 92,456 1819 +08,53 0,0033 00,0 223,3 +46,4 14,14
2004 06 23 18:10 92,539 1813 +10,85 0,0000 -02,2 222,6 +46,4 14,07
2004 06 23 19:08 92,577 1813 +10,86 0,0035 00,0 222,8 +46,4 14,12

Sergey Shanov
Sergey Dubrovsky
http://gelios-2002.narod.ru/docs/jbo04/jbo04.html