(meteorobs) Update of the 2004 Leonids: an early encounter

[Geert Barentsen]

Hello Jeremie,

Thank you once again for your amazing contributions!

If the prediction for the Nov. 8 encounter is correct, can we expect a 
fireball show in Europe? (Because of Poynting-Robertson?)
...or even an earthgrazing-fireball spectacle, given the low radiant elevation?

How does this compare with the early Leonid fireballs in 1998?

I vote for clear skies next week!
Geert





At 02:11 30-10-2004, you wrote:
>Hello you all,
>
>Here is an update of the predictions of the coming Leonid meteor shower.
>We found a 3rd encounter with the trail ejected in 1001, i.e. a very old 
>one, which is split into 2 parts. This additonal activity will occur on 
>8th Nov., arount 23:30, for ZHR ~ 50.
>
>However, we did not find any particular activity from the 1135 trail, as 
>suggested by M. Sato's results: this trail is very perturbed, and only a 
>small fraction of it passes close to the Earth.
>
>For more informations, please see:
>
>http://portail.imcce.fr/page.php?nav=en/ephemerides/phenomenes/meteor/leonids/Leonid_forecast_2004.php
>http://portail.imcce.fr/en/ephemerides/phenomenes/meteor/leonids/Leonid_forecast_2004.php
>
>Once again, thanks a lot to all observers!
>
>We NEED observations on 8th. Nov., since that will validate or not the 
>orbit of the comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, for a perihelion passage that 
>occured more than 1000 years ago!
>
>Kind regards.
>
>Jeremie Vaubaillon
>
>
>--
>************************************************************
>* Jeremie VAUBAILLON
>* IMCCE, 77 Av. Denfert Rochereau, 75014 PARIS, FRANCE
>* or
>* SETI Institute, 515 N. Whisman Rd, Mountain View, CA 94043, USA
>************************************************************
>* tel : +33 1 40 51 22 66 or +1 650-810-0242
>* fax : +33 1 40 51 20 58 or +1 650-961-7099
>* URL : 
>http://portail.imcce.fr/page.php?nav=en/presentation/equipes/GAP/membres/equipeGAP-jv-gb.php
>************************************************************
>
>_______________________________________________
>Mailing list meteorobs
>meteorobs at meteorobs.org
>http://lists.meteorobs.org/mailman/listinfo/meteorobs
>