(meteorobs) 2004 Leonids

Skywayinc at aol.com Skywayinc at aol.com
Thu Nov 4 09:22:45 EST 2004


In a message dated 11/3/04 4:57:14 PM Eastern Standard Time, 
lunro.imo.usa at cox.net writes:

<< Your best bet for seeing Leonid activity should occur near 1:39am EST on 
the morning of November 19, when the Earth passes closest to the trail of 
debris created by comet Temple-Tuttle in 1333. I would not expect strong rates, 
just a Leonid every minute or two around that time compared to one every five 
minutes the remainder of the night. >>

Hi Bob --

    From my interpretation of the calculations done on this particular (1333) 
meteor trail by both Jeremie and Esko, I'd have to disagree with your above 
assessment of prospective Leonid activity.  Here is a snippet of my upcoming 
November 12 "Night Sky Friday" column on SPACE.com, which concerns the upcoming 
Leonids:

"For instance: sometime around 6:40 GMT (1:40 a.m. EST), the Earth might 
interact with material that was shed by comet Tempel-Tuttle back in the year 1333. 
 But at best, only about 10 Leonids per hour may be seen.  Lyytinen even 
suggests that because of gravitational perturbations affecting these particles 
after making 20 trips around the Sun, that this sparse activity might actually 
take place several hours earlier, which would favor observers in Europe."

    Perhaps you might have confused the 1333 trail with that of 1733, which 
is predicted to interact with Earth about a half-day later and is projected to 
possibly produce rates of 30 to 60 per hour (or one Leonid every minute or 
two).  But this trail would only favor those in central and eastern Asia.

-- joe r. 


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