(meteorobs) Re: 2004 Leonids

Robert Lunsford lunro.imo.usa at cox.net
Thu Nov 4 17:24:19 EST 2004


Joe and All,

I had not heard of a predicted ZHR for the 1333 trail. If it is indeed as 
low as ten then I agree that folks would
be better off viewing later in the morning when the radiant has risen higher 
into the sky. But one never knows for sure the strength of these trails. If 
any trail is predicted to be encountered with the radiant above the horizon 
at your location I would always suggest checking it out no matter the 
predicted rate.

Revised suggestion for short duration observers in eastern North America:

Start your observing at 1:00 or 1:30am EST to see if anything does occur 
from the 1333 trail. If nothing does occur by 2:00am then get a catnap until 
4:00am and then watch the show with the radiant higher in the sky.

For those further west, observe during the last hours before dawn when the 
radiant lies high in the sky.

Clear Skies!

Bob Lunsford


----- Original Message ----- 
From: <Skywayinc at aol.com>
To: <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
Sent: Thursday, November 04, 2004 6:22 AM
Subject: Re: (meteorobs) 2004 Leonids


> In a message dated 11/3/04 4:57:14 PM Eastern Standard Time,
> lunro.imo.usa at cox.net writes:
>
> << Your best bet for seeing Leonid activity should occur near 1:39am EST 
> on
> the morning of November 19, when the Earth passes closest to the trail of
> debris created by comet Temple-Tuttle in 1333. I would not expect strong 
> rates,
> just a Leonid every minute or two around that time compared to one every 
> five
> minutes the remainder of the night. >>
>
> Hi Bob --
>
>    From my interpretation of the calculations done on this particular 
> (1333)
> meteor trail by both Jeremie and Esko, I'd have to disagree with your 
> above
> assessment of prospective Leonid activity.  Here is a snippet of my 
> upcoming
> November 12 "Night Sky Friday" column on SPACE.com, which concerns the 
> upcoming
> Leonids:
>
> "For instance: sometime around 6:40 GMT (1:40 a.m. EST), the Earth might
> interact with material that was shed by comet Tempel-Tuttle back in the 
> year 1333.
> But at best, only about 10 Leonids per hour may be seen.  Lyytinen even
> suggests that because of gravitational perturbations affecting these 
> particles
> after making 20 trips around the Sun, that this sparse activity might 
> actually
> take place several hours earlier, which would favor observers in Europe."
>
>    Perhaps you might have confused the 1333 trail with that of 1733, which
> is predicted to interact with Earth about a half-day later and is 
> projected to
> possibly produce rates of 30 to 60 per hour (or one Leonid every minute or
> two).  But this trail would only favor those in central and eastern Asia.
>
> -- joe r.



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