(meteorobs) Re: IMO Shower Circ.: Leonids 2004

Mikhail Maslov ast0 at mail.ru
Wed Nov 24 10:28:22 EST 2004


Hello Jeremie, Quanzhi and all,

Let me some small considerations. As far as I remember, escape
velocity for appropriate part of trail 1733 (or similar parameter
da0) in different predictions indicated that meteors during assumed
outburst should be mostly faint. But not extremely faint. This
velocity is close to the outburst of 13 November 2003, which wasn't a
telescopic one.
Anyhow, something went wrong with the Leonids, following Jeremie's joke.
It is clear from IMO Circular, that this year gave no sharp peak but
background activity with ZHR=30 was still a little above normal levels of
10-15. Does this mean that we finally said goodbye to this cycle of
the Leonids storms and outbirsts? The next year will be unfavorable
due to the Moon, but there are some predictions for 2006 and 2007. How
reliable are they? I think nobody can say. At least, until appr.
2027-2028 we will have still very notable and wonderful shower, which
shows some variations even in its lower phase between ZHR of 5-20,
which makes its observation very interesting, just as before.

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov


t> Hello Jeremie,
t>   I've got a PM from Huan Meng, he said his calculation is r=3.96, 
t> so he thought it's impossible to observe 8-rev with naked eye.
t>   However the ZHR still reach 26, so it seems to be correct again...
t> All the best,
t> Quanzhi

t> --- In meteorobs at yahoogroups.com, Jeremie VAUBAILLON <vaubaill at i...> 
t> wrote:
>> Hello you all,
>> 
>> Do you know this story of a theoritician telling an 
t> observer: "your 
>> observations do not fit my model!" ;-)
>> 
>> Well, first of all thanks a lot to all observers for sending their 
>> reports to IMO. Now these observations will recquire some 
t> additional 
>> work to be well understood I suppose.
>> 
>> J. Vaubaillon
>> 
>> -- 
>> ************************************************************
>> * Jeremie VAUBAILLON
>> * IMCCE, 77 Av. Denfert Rochereau, 75014 PARIS, FRANCE
>> * or
>> * SETI Institute, 515 N. Whisman Rd, Mountain View, CA 94043, USA
>> ************************************************************
>> * tel : +33 1 40 51 22 66 or +1 650-810-0242
>> * fax : +33 1 40 51 20 58 or +1 650-961-7099
>> * URL : 
>> http://portail.imcce.fr/page.php?
t> nav=en/presentation/equipes/GAP/membres/equipeGAP-jv-gb.php
>> ************************************************************
>> 
>> ---
>> Mailing list meteorobs
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