(meteorobs) Predictable meteor outbursts in the 21st century

Daniel Fischer dfischer at astro.uni-bonn.de
Tue Nov 30 07:37:25 EST 2004


After the successes (and in 2004, failure) to predict the Leonids
and the semi-success in predicting the 2004 Perseids, I'm a bit confused
about the state of the art, regarding those two (and possible other)
showers in the remainder of this century: Do we 'know' of any upcoming
outbursts with, say EZHR values of 500 or more, in the time frame til 2099?

The reason I'm asking is http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/~dfischer/21 where
I'm trying to collect all predictable major sky events in the coming
decades: So far the list consists mainly of occultations, eclipses etc.,
but given the progress in dust trail modelling it would be nice if
semi-secure predictions for meteor outbursts could also be included.

Hints - and references - welcome!

Daniel


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