(meteorobs) Predictable meteor outbursts in the 21st century

[Mikhail Maslov]

Hello, David and all.

First of all, I think the following link could be useful:
http://users.skynet.be/fa079980/leonids2002/future_meteor_storms.htm
Also, there are some other predictions of meteor activity. I have
several sets of predictions by Esko Lyytinen for Leonids near future
parent comet apparitions, Perseids and some other showers. If you need
anything of this let me know. Also, computing, made by J. Vaubaillon for
Giakobinids 2011 shows the possibility of strong outburst. Exact (or
even approximate) ZHR predictions are very difficult (maybe, except of
Leonids) due to knowledge lack of trail structure. So I couldn't say,
that it was a semisuccess with Perseids this year, it was a success as
we witnessed the outburst. The ZHR predictions were very uncertain -
from 100 to storm level. Observed ZHR~170-180 is within this interval.
By the way, next 2005 year is scheduled to give an alpha-Monocerotids
outbirst, under gibbous Moon unfortunately, but ZHR could reach
several hundreds.
About other events, say eclipses. Don't you find that it is too
N. America and Europe centered. For those living in Africa, for example,
american and europian events are indifferent. Personally for me one of
the most spectacular events in 21 cent. will be on 1 August 2008 -
the total solar
eclipse in Novosibirk where I live. These considerations could be
related to other types of events (asteroid occultations etc.). They
are not universal, so they have to be listed all or no one. Otherwise
the listing in not prinsipal and incomplete.

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov

DF> After the successes (and in 2004, failure) to predict the Leonids
DF> and the semi-success in predicting the 2004 Perseids, I'm a bit confused
DF> about the state of the art, regarding those two (and possible other)
DF> showers in the remainder of this century: Do we 'know' of any upcoming
DF> outbursts with, say EZHR values of 500 or more, in the time frame til 2099?

DF> The reason I'm asking is http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/~dfischer/21 where
DF> I'm trying to collect all predictable major sky events in the coming
DF> decades: So far the list consists mainly of occultations, eclipses etc.,
DF> but given the progress in dust trail modelling it would be nice if
DF> semi-secure predictions for meteor outbursts could also be included.

DF> Hints - and references - welcome!

DF> Daniel
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