(meteorobs) Predictable meteor outbursts in the 21st

Tue Nov 30 12:35:42 EST 2004

Hi all,

I thank Mikhail on his reply (on my predictions and others too) and I 
add the next to his reply and to the data in the link that he gives.

My early predictions on some of the next Leonids return outbursts can be 
found at the meteorobs archive at:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/meteorobs/message/24588

As to what Mikhail says about alpha-Monocerotids, I am sorry to spoil (I 
expect) your waiting of next year's outburst, but I am very convinced 
that the explanation given in:
http://aio.arc.nasa.gov/~leonid/ICARUSLP-final.pdf
is correct. 
Starting from the observed 1995 outburst data, all the three previous 
outbursts could be post-predicted to within about 10 minutes (or as 
accurately as the original timing) with the assumption of being caused 
by the one revolution trail of a (an unknown) long period comet.

According to this, you would have to wait the next outburst till the 
year 2019 and even this is not an especially good encounter (assuming 
the observed outburst to have been in general (roughly) central, 
supported by short durations).
Of all the predictions in this paper, one can consider reliable only 
those where more than one outburst has been observed connected to the 
shower (and the 1-rev. trail).

These are AMO:s and Aurigids (next predicted in 2007,9,1.485, there 
seems to be a defect in this line at page-break) and Lyrids. As to the 
Lyrids, the predicted encounters are in 2040 and 2041. Then, the 1-rev. 
trail at that distance (in time) of the parent comet (with an orbital 
period of a few hudred years) is expected to be practically empty of 
meteoroids producing visual meteors(?)
With the Lyrids it may be possible to see some (weaker) level outbursts 
from older (from two-rev. most probably) trails, but these can not be 
predicted, beacuse the comet motion is not known well enough till two 
revolutions back.
(A one revoltion trail encounter can be predictable even if the motion 
is not well known one revolution back, but for a two revoltion trail 
encounter predition the comet motion must really be known till two 
revolutions back.)

I recall that with the Lyrids most of this type outbursts were observed 
when the one rev. trail was brought relatively near (but not quite near 
enough) to the Earth orbit. The year 2005 is one such year.

With more long (than about 400 years) period comets, the older trails 
are practicable not capable of giving outbursts. (These are 'folded' 
sveral times to appear almost as randomly scattered points in plots.)

The others (in this paper) are cases, where only one outburst hase been 
observed and the comet is unknown or the comet is known but no (major) 
outburst has been seen. These predictions are valid only on some 
assumptions on the 'missing' parent comet or as to the known comet orbit 
reliability and enough dust released for a very long and strong enough 
trail to contain meteoroids enough.

As to the predicted Perseids storm in 2028, the 2004 observed outburst 
as a calibration may mean that this would now be predicted only around 
the storm limit. No definite new treatment of this has been made, but by 
reducing to about one third of the earlier assumptions would mean this.

Esko

>>>

Hello, David and all.

First of all, I think the following link could be useful:
http://users.skynet.be/fa079980/leonids2002/future_meteor_storms.htm
Also, there are some other predictions of meteor activity. I have
several sets of predictions by Esko Lyytinen for Leonids near future
parent comet apparitions, Perseids and some other showers. If you need
anything of this let me know. Also, computing, made by J. Vaubaillon for
Giakobinids 2011 shows the possibility of strong outburst. Exact (or
even approximate) ZHR predictions are very difficult (maybe, except of
Leonids) due to knowledge lack of trail structure. So I couldn't say,
that it was a semisuccess with Perseids this year, it was a success as
we witnessed the outburst. The ZHR predictions were very uncertain -
from 100 to storm level. Observed ZHR~170-180 is within this interval.
By the way, next 2005 year is scheduled to give an alpha-Monocerotids
outbirst, under gibbous Moon unfortunately, but ZHR could reach
several hundreds.
About other events, say eclipses. Don't you find that it is too
N. America and Europe centered. For those living in Africa, for example,
american and europian events are indifferent. Personally for me one of
the most spectacular events in 21 cent. will be on 1 August 2008 -
the total solar
eclipse in Novosibirk where I live. These considerations could be
related to other types of events (asteroid occultations etc.). They
are not universal, so they have to be listed all or no one. Otherwise
the listing in not prinsipal and incomplete.

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov

> After the successes (and in 2004, failure) to predict the Leonids
> and the semi-success in predicting the 2004 Perseids, I'm a bit confused
> about the state of the art, regarding those two (and possible other)
> showers in the remainder of this century: Do we 'know' of any upcoming
> outbursts with, say EZHR values of 500 or more, in the time frame til 2099?

> The reason I'm asking is http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/~dfischer/21 where
> I'm trying to collect all predictable major sky events in the coming
> decades: So far the list consists mainly of occultations, eclipses etc.,
> but given the progress in dust trail modelling it would be nice if
> semi-secure predictions for meteor outbursts could also be included.

> Hints - and references - welcome!

> Daniel
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