(meteorobs) Re: Predictable meteor outbursts in the 21st century

[Jeremie VAUBAILLON]

Dear Danile, Mikhail and you all,

Indeed we can ask ourselves our reliable are the predictions now. Well, 
I will again ask you to trust me even if this year was not that good. 
Interestingly David Asher pointed out that if the "regular" date for 
2004 Leonids was Nov. 17th, then the activity on the 19th were maybe 
related to a trail. Ok, still some works to confirm this.
BUT for the comong Leonids (at least):
- I think David Asher gave some rough predictions, but I do not remember 
where exactly...
- E. Lyytinen and T. Van Flandern 2000 or 2002 gave some predictions up 
to 2099 did'int they?
- My PhD, page 207 (ok, all in french, but tables are understandable. 
See: http://portail.imcce.fr/page.php?nav=fr/publications/theses/index.php
) gives some predictions for the same time span. an articles is being 
written now, please be patient ;-)

Now I think as long as the predicted showers are "regular" = deals with 
years "shortly after" the comet return (let say 3-5 years) + Earth 
passing definitely close to the center, we can rely on these 
predictions. The 2003 and 2004 cases were different, since they dealt 
with "large" geocentric distances and particles definitely far from the 
nucleus, making harder to know their exact position (whatever model you 
consider...), and most of all their spatial density.

For sure 2034 will be an incredible year with at least 2 Leonid storms.
Too bad we have to wait until this time...

Jeremie Vaubaillon

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