(meteorobs) Re: Predictable meteor outbursts in the 21st century
Mikhail Maslov
ast0 at mail.ru
Tue Nov 30 22:53:18 EST 2004
Jeremie, Esko,
Thanks for your notes. Nevertheless, what's about Leonids 2034. Esko
gives no storm predictions for this year (as for all period till 2098),
with max. ZHR maybe at 500-600 (considering the 5 and 10 rev. trails
partly supplementing each other). Jeremie says about at least two storms. A
contradiction?
Best regards, Mikhail Maslov
JV> Dear Danile, Mikhail and you all,
JV> Indeed we can ask ourselves our reliable are the predictions now. Well,
JV> I will again ask you to trust me even if this year was not that good.
JV> Interestingly David Asher pointed out that if the "regular" date for
JV> 2004 Leonids was Nov. 17th, then the activity on the 19th were maybe
JV> related to a trail. Ok, still some works to confirm this.
JV> BUT for the comong Leonids (at least):
JV> - I think David Asher gave some rough predictions, but I do not remember
JV> where exactly...
JV> - E. Lyytinen and T. Van Flandern 2000 or 2002 gave some predictions up
JV> to 2099 did'int they?
JV> - My PhD, page 207 (ok, all in french, but tables are understandable.
JV> See: http://portail.imcce.fr/page.php?nav=fr/publications/theses/index.php
JV> ) gives some predictions for the same time span. an articles is being
JV> written now, please be patient ;-)
JV> Now I think as long as the predicted showers are "regular" = deals with
JV> years "shortly after" the comet return (let say 3-5 years) + Earth
JV> passing definitely close to the center, we can rely on these
JV> predictions. The 2003 and 2004 cases were different, since they dealt
JV> with "large" geocentric distances and particles definitely far from the
JV> nucleus, making harder to know their exact position (whatever model you
JV> consider...), and most of all their spatial density.
JV> For sure 2034 will be an incredible year with at least 2 Leonid storms.
JV> Too bad we have to wait until this time...
JV> Jeremie Vaubaillon
More information about the Meteorobs
mailing list