(meteorobs) Re: More about GIA and LEO 2004

Mikhail Maslov ast0 at mail.ru
Tue Oct 5 10:05:26 EDT 2004


Hello

Well, I take a risk to wright a pair of words concerning activity from
trail 1733. I did some calculations today and yesterday, after getting
these fine predictions of Mikiya Sato. I used formulas for deriving
ZHRmax for Leonids given in the "Predicting the strength of Leonid
outbursts" paper by E. Lyytinen and T. van Flandern. I did some
corrections concerning activity levels observed in
recent years to get quite good accordance with caclulated ZHRs. This
accordance is good although not ideal. So I got ZHRmax=54 for 1733
trail in 2004. Added to background activity this means that total ZHR
may approach to 60 at maximum. This would be something similar to
2003, but this year it would be the only peak instead of plural ones a
year before.

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov


t> Hello Jeremie,
t>   I'm curious about 1733-rev, because its time fits my site very 
t> well (~4AM LT), so are there any further information about it?
t>   Thanks!
t> -Quanzhi

t> --- In meteorobs at yahoogroups.com, Jeremie VAUBAILLON <vaubaill at i...> 
t> wrote:
>> Hello you all,
>> 
>> As already announced at the "Meteoroids 2004" (London, Canada, 
t> Aug. 
>> 2004) and "IMC 2004" (Varna, Bulgaria, Sept. 2004), indeed there 
t> will be 
>> some Leonids activity from several trails. No storm unfortunately.
>> 
>> E. Lyytinen, M. Nissinen, D. Asher and me have just submitted an 
t> article 
>> to WGN. Please be patient ;-)
>> 
>> We can already say that we NEED your observations, on Nov. 19th 
t> (anytime!)
>> 
>> Jeremie
>> 
>> -- 
>> ************************************************************
>> * Jeremie VAUBAILLON
>> * IMCCE, 77 Av. Denfert Rochereau, 75014 PARIS, FRANCE
>> * or
>> * SETI Institute, 515 N. Whisman Rd, Mountain View, CA 94043, USA
>> ************************************************************
>> * tel : +33 1 40 51 22 66 or +1 650-801-2242
>> * fax : +33 1 40 51 20 58 or +1 650-961-7099
>> * URL : http://www.imcce.fr/Equipes/GAP/JV/equipeGAP-JV-GB.html
>> ************************************************************
>> 
>> _______________________________________________
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-- 
Best regards,
 Mikhail                            mailto:ast0 at mail.ru



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