(meteorobs) New possible parent comet

[Mikhail Maslov]

Hello.
This morning I found on
http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/mpec/K04/K04R24.html elements of new
periodic comet P/2004 R1 (McNaught), which might be "promising" in
producing meteor activity. These elements should still be preliminary
and can be changed in several days. However, I seem there is something
to tell about. Its perihelion distance is 0.988 a.e., orbit
inclination is small, so the orbit should at two points pass very
close to Earth's one. Period is 5.40 year, aphelion lies near Jupiter
orbit.
My raw orbit calculations show that the orbit should remain rather stable
till 2047. But when I looked in past evolution, I found, that in 1990
this comet had to pass very close to Jupiter (maybe only at 0.01
a.e.), which dramatically changed its orbit, so the trail of past
perihelions, if they exist at all, don't intersect Earth orbit.
These are general considerations, because the final orbit elements are
still uncertain, however, the dust from current perihelions may form
short-periodic showers, something like Giacobinids.

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov