(meteorobs) New possible parent comet

[tom6740]

Interesting news! Thanks to Mikhail's work, and could you tell me 
when will the Earth pass the "point"?

--- In meteorobs at yahoogroups.com, Mikhail Maslov <ast0 at m...> wrote:
> Hello.
> This morning I found on
> http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/mpec/K04/K04R24.html elements of new
> periodic comet P/2004 R1 (McNaught), which might be "promising" in
> producing meteor activity. These elements should still be 
preliminary
> and can be changed in several days. However, I seem there is 
something
> to tell about. Its perihelion distance is 0.988 a.e., orbit
> inclination is small, so the orbit should at two points pass very
> close to Earth's one. Period is 5.40 year, aphelion lies near 
Jupiter
> orbit.
> My raw orbit calculations show that the orbit should remain rather 
stable
> till 2047. But when I looked in past evolution, I found, that in 
1990
> this comet had to pass very close to Jupiter (maybe only at 0.01
> a.e.), which dramatically changed its orbit, so the trail of past
> perihelions, if they exist at all, don't intersect Earth orbit.
> These are general considerations, because the final orbit elements 
are
> still uncertain, however, the dust from current perihelions may 
form
> short-periodic showers, something like Giacobinids.
> 
> Best regards, Mikhail Maslov
> 
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