(meteorobs) Leonid 1167 trail activity in 2005

[Mikhail Maslov]

Hello all.

I've done calculations for the Leonid 1167 trail (25 rev.) and found that
in 2005 a separated cloud of particles will come quite close to the Earth. The
cloud is represented by relatively dense twisted trail structire, so
it would cause multiple encounters, but at the same time this twisted
structure of a very old trail makes the reliability of predictions
quite low.
As my results say, on 20-21(!) November 2005 the 1167 Leonid trail can
give some level of activity. ZHR calculation on the base of given
results show the level of several dozens meteors per hour, but this is
very uncertain. The major interference will be the Moon, of course,
however, the level of activity form this trail may serve to some
extent as the base of estimation for activity from trails 1466 and
1533 in 2008 and 2009, discussed earlier.
The average brightness of trail meteors is expected to be not very
high, but still detectable despite the moonlight. The suggested peak
times are favorable mostly for European longitudes.
2005
rev. Year  rd-re   ej. Vel. fM(fNP) sol.long max. Time   ZHR ex.
            AU       m/s              deg       UT
25  1167 -0,00120   12,9   -0,006   238,653  20.11.05 23:07  5
25  1167 -0,00139   13,0    0,054   238,719  21.11.05 0:41   39
25  1167 -0,00157   13,0   -0,088   238,780  21.11.05 2:08   55
25  1167 -0,00177   13,0    0,023   238,852  21.11.05 3:50   12
25  1167 -0,00184   13,0   -0,001   238,904  21.11.05 5:04   0

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov