(meteorobs) 2005 Draconids

[Mikhail Maslov]

Hello, Jeremie and others.

Many thanks for these results, they are very interesting. And I have
some thoughts of potential "general" activity of Draconids this year.
Your image shows some diffused cloud, encountering the Earth and no
trails intersections. So the question is what activity could be caused
by this cloud. In the previous perihelion years with no trail
encounters Draconids gave almost nothing. The latest year of such a
kind was 1992. 2005 is very similar to 1992 in trails distribution.
So I suppose ZHR of 5-10 would be very not bad in this situation. What
do you mean saying "there will be a Draconids activity, but no, we do
not expect the storm"? The outburst in 1998 was also not stormy (ZHR~800
as I remember) but it was a definitely very favorable year in terms of
trail intersection.

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov



JV> Hello you all,

JV> As many people are wondering about the 2005 Draconids, here are the 
JV> results of our work:

JV> http://www.imcce.fr/page.php?nav=en/ephemerides/phenomenes/meteor/DRA/2005DRA.php

JV> As you can see, there are lots of particles in the vicinity of the 
JV> Earth, because of the return of comet 21P/Gicaobini-Zinner. However, the 
JV> Earth itself will not pass through a particular stream.

JV> So yes, there will be a Draconids activity, but no, we do not expect a 
JV> storm.

JV> Anyway, thanks a lot to the observers: we never know....

JV> Jeremie Vaubaillon