(meteorobs) 2005 Draconids

[Mikhail Maslov]

In 1985 the situation was following: despite the absence of clear
intersections, the Earth was however "among" the different dust
trails. For exapmle, 1933 trail crossed the Earth's orbit around 15
September and 1946 did the same around 18 october. So 1985 in
principle was something similar to 1998. It means that considerable
part of activity could origin from the dust cloud, which is supposed
to fill the space around and betweeen the trails. Also, many trails in
the vicinity of Earth's orbit were perturbed, so the Earth could
encounter the dense part of perturbed trail torn up from its main
body. These are general considerations, of course. In 2005 two closest
trails of 1946 and 1953 (from considered 1900-1953 by now) cross the
Earth's orbit around 18 August and 9 November, respectively. The
mainstream of trails is much farther. So reasons to expect high
activity this year are much lower than in 1985.

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov



HL> I did some trail computing of the Draconids years ago. Yes - the lack in
HL> activity in 1972 is easily explainable, also the 1933 and 1946 storms show
HL> up nicely. What I never understood was the reason for the 1985 meteors.

HL> For 2005 I do not see any significant trails in the computations.

HL> Hartwig




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