(meteorobs) 1972 Draconids [was 2005 Draconids]

H.Luethen h.luethen at 12move.de
Tue Jan 25 15:48:26 EST 2005


> Speaking of luck I mean that comet's orbit geometry doesn't define if
> an outburst would occur. It didn't happened in 1972 because the bulk
> of trails intersected the Earth's orbit around 10 August. If the Earth
> was at this date in its 7-9 October place, a strong outburst
> certainly would happen. In 1998 the comet's orbit itself was much
> farther, but particles of certain ej. velocities (1) had their des. node
at
> 1 AU, and (2) they passed this node around 8 Ocrober. In
> 2005 comet's orbit geometry is relatively good, its perihelion is
> around 2 months before the Draconids, but no trails encounters are
> expected. In 2011 the geometry is not favorable, but some level
> encounters follow from the computations.

All this is  supported by my computations (although it may be that the delta
a0 range I could have
been larger, which would cause me to miss some encounters.

http://home.tiscali.de/astrohardy/trails/1933.gif
(hit dead center)

http://home.tiscali.de/astrohardy/trails/1946.gif
(brilliant hit)

http://home.tiscali.de/astrohardy/trails/1972.gif
(nothing, trails intersecting months before the earth arrives at the node)

http://home.tiscali.de/astrohardy/trails/2005.gif
no trails visible

http://home.tiscali.de/astrohardy/trails/2011.gif
trails, but missing at some distance

Hartwig




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