(meteorobs) 2012 Draconids

[Mikhail Maslov]

Now I've computed the circumstances. Unfortunately, the hole in 1959
trail tells that the most probable is virtual absence of activity. But
I think there is sence to check 2006 year - younger trails could make
some intersections.


Trail rd-re.  ej. Vel.  fM     sol.long  max. Time   ZHR ex.
       AU       m/s              deg        UT
1959 +0,00121  38,7    0,051*  195,624  08.10.12 16:41  0**
* - very low for Draconids
** - computed as if it was 55P, not 21P.

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov



MM> Hello all.

MM> By the way, I've just finished 1959 trail calculation and I see that
MM> in 2012 we have a relatively good encounter. The problem is that this
MM> part of trail is perturbed, but miss distance is around 0.001 AU.
MM> Ejection velocities are also big, about 41 m/s. So I could assume that
MM> in 2012 we'll se something like in 1999, maybe little stronger and
MM> mainly of faint meteors.

MM> Mikhail Maslov


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