(meteorobs) Are there any prediction about Perseids 2005?

Esko Lyytinen esko.lyytinen at jippii.fi
Mon Jun 13 13:33:35 EDT 2005


Hi Mikhail, Quanzhi and all,

Actually I do not expect this:
".. that traditional peak can be higher during next several years due to perturbations from Jupiter
moving the stream core closer to the Earth."
There is a very slight effect but much less than last year, probably insignificant. In 2009, next time Saturn will have an even bigger effect (of the same type) to the streams than Jupiter had last year.

The encounter of the 4-rev. trail is expected at solar longitude 139.681 , close to 9 UT in Aug. 12. The mean anomaly factor is quite small, but otherwise this "trail-section" behaves quite smoothly. In lack of good calibration data, the prediction of ZHR is quite uncertain, but I expect this to rise the ZHR maybe a few dozens, or around  30 above the background. So it is uncertain, if this predicted increase can be observed at all. The uncertainty is quite high and there MAY be the possibilty that this time the ZHR (-increase) is more than predicted, although more typically the predictions have been too optimistic ;-) If this increase can be detected, this will help in predicting the ZHR of the expected 2028 storm or strong outburst. Now the 4-rev. meteors are probably relatively bright although not real fireballs for the most part.

Best wishes,
Esko


>>>
Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 02:39:18 +0700
From: Mikhail Maslov <ast0 at ..
Subject: Re: (meteorobs) Are there any prediction about Perseids 2005?
To: Global Meteor Observing Forum <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
Message-ID: <1323120264.20050613023918 at mail.ru>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=gb2312

Hello, Quanzhi and all,

I know there are some computations showing the particles of 4 rev.
trail in the vicinity of Earth, but the trail is very dispersed so it's
difficult to expect any noticable enhancements. I did't make any
Perseid computations, so can't say anything more detailed. Maybe
others could.
Also, as I know Esko Lyytinen expects that traditional peak can be
higher during next several years due to perturbations from Jupiter
moving the stream core closer to the Earth. I can add, that, if it is
true, then the same perturbations could change solar longitude of
stream node and therefore shift traditional peak time up to several hours
from the expected one.

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov

> Hi all,
>   The Perseids is coming, so are there any prection about it?
>   I heard that this year will be interesting too.
> Best regards,
> Quanzhi
Ò> ---




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