(meteorobs) Are there any prediction about Perseids 2005?

RainerArlt rarlt at aip.de
Tue Jun 14 03:07:17 EDT 2005


Thanks, Esko, for the details on the Perseid computations.
I just looked up the 'old' calculations by Jones & Brown
from 1996. They also expected the 2004 enhancement. What
they see is probably the Jupiter effect causing increased
background activity, not the individual dust trail. They
show less for 2005 and a slight enhancement for 2006, but
still lower than the 2005 background. Interestingly, very
strong activity is also found for 2009, a fine display
is expected for 2016, and the enhancement of 2029 is also
already in there. Only material from the last 3 revolutions
is considered, so a 4-rev dust trail will not show up.
Just interesting what was possible already 10 years ago.

Best wishes,
Rainer

The ref is Jones & Brown, 1996, ASP Conf. Ser. 104, p. 105



On Mon, Jun 13, 2005 at 08:33:35PM +0300, Esko Lyytinen wrote:
> Hi Mikhail, Quanzhi and all,
> 
> Actually I do not expect this:
> ".. that traditional peak can be higher during next several years due to 
> perturbations from Jupiter
> moving the stream core closer to the Earth."
> There is a very slight effect but much less than last year, probably 
> insignificant. In 2009, next time Saturn will have an even bigger effect 
> (of the same type) to the streams than Jupiter had last year.
> 
> The encounter of the 4-rev. trail is expected at solar longitude 139.681 , 
> close to 9 UT in Aug. 12. The mean anomaly factor is quite small, but 
> otherwise this "trail-section" behaves quite smoothly. In lack of good 
> calibration data, the prediction of ZHR is quite uncertain, but I expect 
> this to rise the ZHR maybe a few dozens, or around  30 above the 
> background. So it is uncertain, if this predicted increase can be observed 
> at all. The uncertainty is quite high and there MAY be the possibilty that 
> this time the ZHR (-increase) is more than predicted, although more 
> typically the predictions have been too optimistic ;-) If this increase can 
> be detected, this will help in predicting the ZHR of the expected 2028 
> storm or strong outburst. Now the 4-rev. meteors are probably relatively 
> bright although not real fireballs for the most part.
> 
> Best wishes,
> Esko





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