(meteorobs) Leonids 2008 and 2009
Mikhail Maslov
ast0 at mail.ru
Mon Mar 7 03:55:24 EST 2005
Hello, all
I've finished computing 1466 trail. Together with 1533 trail they give
nearly coinciding peaks appr. from 21 to 22 UT 17.11.2009. Besides
main peaks I found a number of rather significant secondary
encounters. My calculations show that total level of activity frome
these two trails and background should peak at appr. ZHR=500 at about
21:30 UT 17.11.2009.
2009
rev. Year rd-re ej. Vel. fM(fNP) sol.long max. Time ZHR ex.
AU m/s deg UT
16 1466 -0,00027 9,7 -0,002 235,460 17.11.09 19:48 7
16 1466 -0,00067 9,8 -0,012 235,466 17.11.09 19:56 28
16 1466 -0,00004 9,8 0,001 235,470 17.11.09 20:01 4
16 1466 -0,00060 10,0 0,001 235,471 17.11.09 20:02 2
16 1466 -0,00041 10,0 -0,003 235,473 17.11.09 20:10 9
16 1466 -0,00077 10,1 0,084 235,527 17.11.09 21:23 163
14 1533 -0,00042 13,0 -0,011 235,530 17.11.09 21:27 36
16 1466 0,00132 10,3 -0,002 235,532 17.11.09 21:29 2
16 1466 0,00106 10,3 0,002 235,533 17.11.09 21:31 3
14 1533 0,00044 12,7 -0,073 235,539 17.11.09 21:40 241
14 1533 -0,00117 12,8 0,002 235,554 17.11.09 22:01 3
16 1466 -0,00058 10,3 -0,031 235,555 17.11.09 22:03 78
16 1466 -0,00012 10,4 -0,002 235,596 17.11.09 23:01 8
14 1533 -0,00329 13,2 -0,009 235,706 18.11.09 1:39 2
14 1533 -0,00058 13,3 0,001 235,718 18.11.09 1:56 1
Also I get very interesting result concerning 2008. For 1466 trail I
found quite good encounter with dense part of the trail. For this
encounter ZHRex=435 with lots of bright meteors because of quite low
ej. velocity. So, despite the Moon presence at Leonids max in 2008,
this outburst, if happens, should be easily seen.
2005
rev. Year rd-re ej. Vel. fM(fNP) sol.long max. Time ZHR ex.
AU m/s deg UT
16 1466 -0,00108 8,6 -0,376 234,934 17.11.08 1:06 435
Some general considerations about Leonids 2005. Calculations show that
mainly after 2003 and totally after 2004 main stream of trails shifts
far away inside Earths orbit. So we have high possibility, that
activity this year will be on low side even on the scale of background
activity. I know, that some parts of young trails with extremely high
ejection velocity should be in the relative vicinity to the Earth, but
any trace of meteors from them is highly unprobable.
Best regards, Mikhail Maslov
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