(meteorobs) Leonids 2008 and 2009

Mikhail Maslov ast0 at mail.ru
Mon Mar 7 03:55:24 EST 2005


Hello, all

I've finished computing 1466 trail. Together with 1533 trail they give
nearly coinciding peaks appr. from 21 to 22 UT 17.11.2009. Besides
main peaks I found a number of rather significant secondary
encounters. My calculations show that total level of activity frome
these two trails and background should peak at appr. ZHR=500 at about
21:30 UT 17.11.2009.
2009
rev. Year  rd-re   ej. Vel. fM(fNP) sol.long max. Time   ZHR ex.
            AU       m/s              deg       UT
16   1466 -0,00027  9,7    -0,002  235,460 17.11.09 19:48  7
16   1466 -0,00067  9,8    -0,012  235,466 17.11.09 19:56  28
16   1466 -0,00004  9,8     0,001  235,470 17.11.09 20:01  4
16   1466 -0,00060  10,0    0,001  235,471 17.11.09 20:02  2
16   1466 -0,00041  10,0   -0,003  235,473 17.11.09 20:10  9
16   1466 -0,00077  10,1    0,084  235,527 17.11.09 21:23  163
14   1533 -0,00042  13,0   -0,011  235,530 17.11.09 21:27  36
16   1466  0,00132  10,3   -0,002  235,532 17.11.09 21:29  2
16   1466  0,00106  10,3    0,002  235,533 17.11.09 21:31  3
14   1533  0,00044  12,7   -0,073  235,539 17.11.09 21:40  241
14   1533 -0,00117  12,8    0,002  235,554 17.11.09 22:01  3
16   1466 -0,00058  10,3   -0,031  235,555 17.11.09 22:03  78
16   1466 -0,00012  10,4   -0,002  235,596 17.11.09 23:01  8
14   1533 -0,00329  13,2   -0,009  235,706 18.11.09 1:39   2
14   1533 -0,00058  13,3    0,001  235,718 18.11.09 1:56   1

Also I get very interesting result concerning 2008. For 1466 trail I
found quite good encounter with dense part of the trail. For this
encounter ZHRex=435 with lots of bright meteors because of quite low
ej. velocity. So, despite the Moon presence at Leonids max in 2008,
this outburst, if happens, should be easily seen.
2005
rev. Year  rd-re   ej. Vel. fM(fNP) sol.long max. Time   ZHR ex.
            AU       m/s              deg       UT
16   1466 -0,00108   8,6   -0,376   234,934 17.11.08 1:06  435

Some general considerations about Leonids 2005. Calculations show that
mainly after 2003 and totally after 2004 main stream of trails shifts
far away inside Earths orbit. So we have high possibility, that
activity this year will be on low side even on the scale of background
activity. I know, that some parts of young trails with extremely high
ejection velocity should be in the relative vicinity to the Earth, but
any trace of meteors from them is highly unprobable.

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov




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