(meteorobs) P/2005 JQ5 (Catalina)

[Mikhail Maslov]

Hello,

This morning on http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/mpec/K05/K05K14.html
I found elements of a newly discovered comet P/2005
JQ5 (Catalina). Its orbit seems to be quite interesting because it
lies close to the Earth's one. In 2005 apparition ascending node of
the comet is at 0.090 AU inside the Earth's orbit. The Earth passes
closest to it on 01.07.2005. But orbital inclination of the comet
is low - only 5.679 deg. So the minimal distance between two orbits
is almost 4 times lower (0.024 AU) and corresponds to 12-13.06.2005. In
2005 the Earth will pass this point only about 7 days before the
comet.
In general, even 0.024 AU is still quite large to expect any
significant activity (also, the comet is very small - absolute
magnitude is only 17.5). Intensity of dust ejection of this comet
should be about 100 times lower than of, say, 21P Giacobiny-Zinner.
So, if 21 can give stormy encounters, the new comet should be able to
give ZHRs of several dozens - from very favorable encounters. But such
activity - or even ZHRs about 10 - are still something very
detectable. So I think, there is still the possibility of
enhancements in case of favorable trails position.
The orbit of the comet is still quite uncertain, so to make more
reliable conclusions we have to wait a little for more accurate
elements. The given orbit is rather stable, the perihelion distance
during the period 1901-2100 changes between 0.80 and 0.85 AU Minimal
distance between two orbits was about 0.036 AU at the previous comet
perihelion in 2001. In the following years this minimum will continue
to make small changes, but in total it will slighly decrease to 0.015
AU to the middle of 21 centure. So, unless more accurate elements
make dramatic difference, the comet will be worth attention and
trail computation.
The surrent elements suppose the radiant in RA=242 deg, Dec=-09 deg.
Any meteors from this radiant would be very slow (Vg=16 km/s). Radiant
culminates at 0:15 local time and is more favorable for southern
hemisphere, but in northern one observations are also very possible.

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov