(meteorobs) Call for observations - 05/06 June, or 12/13 June? (was Re: P/2005 JQ5 (Catalina))

Lew Gramer mameteors at yahoo.com
Wed May 18 12:14:07 EDT 2005

Mikhail, I was not certain from the text of your message below... Would you
expect maximum activity (if any) from this comet's meteoroid stream on 12-13
June of this year? Or would expect this maximum activity 7 or so days before
then, when Earth passes the point of closest approach - so 05-06 June 2005?

Clear skies,
Lew Gramer

--- meteorobs-request at meteorobs.org wrote:
> Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 18:57:21 +0700
> From: Mikhail Maslov <ast0 at mail.ru>
> Subject: (meteorobs) P/2005 JQ5 (Catalina)
> To: meteorobs at meteorobs.org
> Hello,
> This morning on http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/mpec/K05/K05K14.html
> I found elements of a newly discovered comet P/2005
> JQ5 (Catalina). Its orbit seems to be quite interesting because it
> lies close to the Earth's one. In 2005 apparition ascending node of
> the comet is at 0.090 AU inside the Earth's orbit. The Earth passes
> closest to it on 01.07.2005. But orbital inclination of the comet
> is low - only 5.679 deg. So the minimal distance between two orbits
> is almost 4 times lower (0.024 AU) and corresponds to 12-13.06.2005. In
> 2005 the Earth will pass this point only about 7 days before the
> comet.
> In general, even 0.024 AU is still quite large to expect any
> significant activity (also, the comet is very small - absolute
> magnitude is only 17.5). Intensity of dust ejection of this comet
> should be about 100 times lower than of, say, 21P Giacobiny-Zinner.
> So, if 21 can give stormy encounters, the new comet should be able to
> give ZHRs of several dozens - from very favorable encounters. But such
> activity - or even ZHRs about 10 - are still something very
> detectable. So I think, there is still the possibility of
> enhancements in case of favorable trails position.
> The orbit of the comet is still quite uncertain, so to make more
> reliable conclusions we have to wait a little for more accurate
> elements. The given orbit is rather stable, the perihelion distance
> during the period 1901-2100 changes between 0.80 and 0.85 AU Minimal
> distance between two orbits was about 0.036 AU at the previous comet
> perihelion in 2001. In the following years this minimum will continue
> to make small changes, but in total it will slighly decrease to 0.015
> AU to the middle of 21 centure. So, unless more accurate elements
> make dramatic difference, the comet will be worth attention and
> trail computation.
> The surrent elements suppose the radiant in RA=242 deg, Dec=-09 deg.
> Any meteors from this radiant would be very slow (Vg=16 km/s). Radiant
> culminates at 0:15 local time and is more favorable for southern
> hemisphere, but in northern one observations are also very possible.
> Best regards, Mikhail Maslov

Lew Gramer <dedalus at alum.mit.edu>

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