(meteorobs) Meteors from 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 late May-early June ...

[Skywayinc at aol.com]

In a message dated 9/20/2005 7:27:58 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
aling at telus.net writes:

I am  begining preparations for my Astronomy column on comets, when I came  
across the return of 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 that will occur this  
upcoming June. However, it broke apart during its last return, and Gary  
Kronk's meteor page suggests that we should be on guard for a possible  
(large) jump in meteor activity in early June.

Any thoughts from  the experts on the list? Using the 3-D Java applet from 
NASA I get a plane  crossing just after May 30, but that method is far from 
precise. Also,  trails can be picked up a few days on either side on 
favorable  revolutions.

Sorry the event is so far from now, but publishing  deadlines are almost a 
1/2 year in advance (I am writing March right  now).
While the comet might put on an interesting show during the middle part of  
May 2006, odds are that we will not see much, if any meteor activity . . . at  
least at this upcoming apparition.  
 
Comet 73P fragmented into four separate pieces in 1995 and the massive  
expulsion of dust/debris shed from this fragmentation ultimately should pass  very 
close to the Earth,
but not until 2022!  
 
Two of these pieces were definitively seen when the comet returned to the  
inner solar system in late 2000. Interestingly, on May 17, 2006, at 6:41 UT, one 
 of these fragments is 
predicted to pass just 4.8 million miles from  Earth.  Some forecasts suggest 
that a larger fragment might even  briefly reach second magnitude during 
mid-May. 

The dust trail from the 1995 fragmentation should pass very close to Earth  
and on May 31.205 (UT), in the year 2022.  This trail will pass just 0.0004  
a.u. from Earth and might very well produce a significant meteor outburst.  
What's more, the Moon will be new at that time!

The full details can be  found in WGN 29-1/2, February-April 2001, pp 
15-28. This well-written paper  was authored by Hartwig Luthen, Rainer Arlt, 
and 
Michael Jager. 

-- joe rao