(meteorobs) The plot thickens! Progress M-56 debris? (Re: Strange event )

[Marco Langbroek]

Okay Javor!

I am beginning to believe this was a re-entry after all, of material connected
to the Progress M-56 launch to ISS that same day at 16:03 UTC from Baykonur.

I fitted a circular geocentric orbit to one of the trails your reported (with
thanks to the software SATFIT of Scott Campbell). This gives an orbit at roughly
175 km altitude (close to decay altitudes certainly if we allow for that it was
probably not nicely circular in reality).

The resulting orbit has an inclination of 50.8 degrees, which is very close to
the typical plane of the ISS and Progress supply missions. Its period is appr.
88 minutes.

Progress M-56 was launched at 16:03 UTC. An object in the orbit I fitted
strongly resembles an object coming from Baykonur at 16:03 UTC, decaying just
before the end of its 2nd revolution.

- Marco

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Dr Marco Langbroek  -  SatTrackCam Leiden, Cospar 4353
Leiden, the Netherlands. 52.15412 N,  4.49081 E (WGS84), +0 m ASL

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