(meteorobs) "The 2007 September 1 Aurigid Meteor Storm"!?

[Skywayinc at aol.com]

In a message dated 8/11/06 9:09:52 PM Eastern Daylight Time, 
dfischer at astro.uni-bonn.de writes:

<< On August 18 from 16:00 to 16:05 Peter Jenniskens will make an 
announcement at the General Assembly of the International Astronomical Union in Prague 
about an
"Aurigid Meteor Storm, 1 September 2007" (in an earlier Version of the 
website -
http://www.astronomy2006.com/special-sessions-hot-topics.php - it actually 
said
"The 2007 September 1 Aurigid Meteor Storm", as if it were an absolute fact).
Has anyone heard about such a prediction? If you google for "Aurigid Meteor 
Storm"
you get exactly one hit: the website mentioned above ... >>

Daniel (and everyone else) --

    In their 2002 Icarus paper, "Meteor Outbursts from Long Period Comet Dust 
Trails," Esko Lyytinen and Peter Jenniskens cite the Theta Aurigid shower, 
which peaks on September 1.  The meteors with this display are apparently 
associated with Comet Kiess (C/1911 N1) which has a period of roughly 2,000-years.  
Outbursts of this shower were reported in 1935, 1986 and 1994.  

In this paper, there is this comment: 

"The next Theta Aurigid outburst is due in 2007, and is expected to be a 
spectacularly rich shower of  bright +0 to +2 magnitude meteors. (Jenniskens, 
1997)."

    Unfortunately, in the accompanying Table I, which provides a working list 
of far-comet type outbursts, the specific information regarding the Theta 
Aurigids is hidden (at least in the on-line .pdf version), because it falls too 
close to the break between pages.  One cannot deduce, for example, the miss 
distance of the associated comet stream from the Earth's orbit or the solar 
longitude value of the predicted peak.   :(

    To me, a meteor "outburst" is a sudden surge -- usually short-lived 
period -- of enhanced meteor activity.  A rapid rise from virtually nothing, to a 
ZHR of, say, a few hundred or more can qualify as an "outburst."  

A meteor "storm," however, implies (to me) a ZHR of at least 1,000 or more. 

    It is interesting to me, that this 2007 Aurigid display was originally 
promoted as an "outburst" in the Icarus paper . . . and now apparently will be 
upgraded to potential "storm" status in Dr. Jenniskens announcement at the IAU 
Conference in Prague in just a few days.  I'm sure we all are anxiously 
awaiting his conclusions.

    But not to throw cold water on this . . . I think it is only fair to 
point out that on September 1, 2007, the Moon will be residing in the neighboring 
constellation of Aries and will be only four days past Full phase.  In fact . 
. . just before 10 p.m. local daylight time that evening, as Capella is rising 
in the NNE, the Moon will also be rearing its head above the ENE horizon.  
Anyone who might wonder what effect such a Moon might have on observing a meteor 
display with potentially bright shower members need only step outside tonight 
to watch for the predicted Perseid peak; for tonight's lunar phase will be 
approximately the same as it will be on September 1 of next year!

-- joe rao