(meteorobs) Meteor Activity Outlook for February 24-March 2, 2006

[Robert Lunsford]

At this time of year most of the meteor shower activity is produced by weak
radiants located in the deep southern portion of the sky.  A majority of
these radiants produce rates much less than that of the sporadic background
(random meteors) therefore the possibility of chance alignments is high,
even for observers located in the Southern Hemisphere, where these radiants
rise higher into the sky. These showers are often not included on lists
intended for visual observers. They are presented here to offer targets for
those observers who carefully plot the meteor activity they see and those
who use other methods of meteor observing such as telescopic, photographic,
and video. I would advise a majority visual observers to concentrate on
reporting the activity of showers rated at least class III or higher. These
showers offer the best opportunity to see activity other than that produced
by the sporadic background.

The moon reaches its new phase on Tuesday February 28. At this time the moon
will rise and set with the sun and will not interfere with observing at any
time during the night. This weekend the waning crescent moon will hardly be
noticeable as it will be quite thin and will not rise until late in the dark
morning hours. The estimated total hourly rates for evening observers this
week should be near two no matter your location. For morning observers the
estimated total hourly rates should be near nine for Northern Hemisphere
observers and ten for those located in the Southern Hemisphere. These rates
assume that you are watching from rural areas away from all sources of light
pollution. The actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal
light and motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness and
experience in watching meteor activity.

The radiant positions listed below are exact for Saturday night/Sunday
morning February 25/26. These positions do not change greatly day to day so
the listed coordinates may be used during this entire period. Most star
atlases (available at science stores and planetariums) will provide maps
with grid lines of the celestial coordinates so that you may find out
exactly where these positions are located in the sky. A planisphere or
computer planetarium program is also useful in showing the sky at any time
of night on any date of the year. Activity from each radiant is best seen
when it is positioned highest in the sky, either due north or south along
the meridian, depending on your latitude. Meteor activity is not seen from
radiants that are located below the horizon. The positions below are listed
in a west to east manner in order of right ascension (celestial longitude).
The positions listed first are located further west therefore are accessible
earlier in the night while those listed further down the list rise later in
the night.

These are the showers that may be observed this week:

The Delta Leonids (DLE) peak on February 24 with a ZHR of two.Actual
observed rates should be near one per hour no matter your location. The
radiant is located at 11:20 (170) +15. This area of the sky is located in
eastern Leo, two degrees east of the third magnitude star Theta Leonis. This
radiant lies fairly close to the Eclipticid radiant so care must be taken
when tracing activity back to this portion of the sky. The best time to view
this activity is near 0100 local time, when the radiant lies on the meridian
and at its highest point above the horizon. With an entry velocity of 23
kilometers per second, these meteors will appear to move slowly.

The Eclipticid (ECL) radiant is now centered at 11:48 (177) +03. This area
of the sky is located in western Virgo, two degrees north of the fourth
magnitude star Beta Virginis. This radiant is best placed near 0100 local
standard time when it lies on the meridian and is highest in the sky. Rates
should be near two per hour no matter your location. With an entry velocity
of 30 km/sec., the average Eclipticid meteor would be of medium-slow speed.
This radiant is a good source of fireballs, more so as we progress through
the winter months. Those who send reports to the I.M.O. should label these
meteors as Virginids (VIR).

The Theta Centaurids (TCE) is the most northerly of several radiants that
are active in Centaurus during late January and throughout the month of
February. The date of maximum activity was February 14 with a predicted ZHR
of four. Current rates would be less than one per hour, even for areas where
the radiant rises high into the sky. The radiant lies at 14:52 (223) -46.
This position lies in central Lupus, three degrees northeast of the second
magnitude star Alpha Lupi. This shower is not well seen north of the
northern tropical regions. It is possible to see activity from the latitude
of San Diego, CA as I have witnessed several of these meteors during my
winter observations. This area of the sky is best placed near 0400 local
standard time when it lies highest in the sky. At 60 km/sec. the Theta
Centaurids produce meteors of swift velocity.

The Gamma Normids (GNO) are active from a radiant located at located at
15:28 (232) -52. This position lies on the Lupus/Norma border, four degrees
west of the third magnitude star Zeta Lupi. This is fairly close to the
Theta Centaurid radiant so care must be taken to separate the two. Average
ZHR's are near six at maximum (March 13). Current rates would be near one
from the Southern Hemisphere and near zero north of the equator. Due to the
far southern declination of the radiant, this shower is not well seen north
of the northern equatorial regions. This area of the sky is best placed near
0500 local standard time when it lies highest in the sky. At 56 km/sec. the
Gamma Normids normally produce meteors of swift angular velocities.

The Sporadic rates for the Northern Hemisphere are now well past their
annual peak. One would expect to see perhaps six random meteors per hour
during the last hours before dawn from rural observing sites. During the
evening hours perhaps two random meteors can be seen per hour. Sporadic
rates seen from the Southern Hemisphere are also decreasing toward a
secondary minimum in March. One would see approximately six random meteors
per hour during the late morning hours and two per hour during the evening.

Delta Leonids (DLE)    11:20 (170) +15   Class II
Hourly Rate = N. Hemisphere 1 - S. Hemisphere 1

Eclipticid (ECL)    11:48 (177) +03   Class II
Hourly Rate = N. Hemisphere 2 - S. Hemisphere 2

Theta Centaurids (TCE)     14:24 (216) -43   Class IV
Hourly Rate = N. Hemisphere >1 - S. Hemisphere >1

Gamma Normids (GNO)   15:28 (232) -52   Class II
Hourly Rate = N. Hemisphere 0 - S. Hemisphere 1

For a detailed explanation on the different classes of meteor showers and
other astronomical terms, please visit:
http://www.amsmeteors.org/showers.html#X2006

Clear Skies!
Robert Lunsford
American Meteor Society