(meteorobs) Meteor Activity Outlook for January 27-February 2, 2006

[Robert Lunsford]

At this time of year most of the meteor shower activity is produced by very
weak radiants located in the deep southern portion of the sky.  A majority
of these radiants produce rates much less than that of the sporadic
background (random meteors) therefore the possibility of chance alignments
is high, even for observers located in the Southern Hemisphere, where these
radiants rise higher into the sky.. These showers are often not included on
lists intended for visual observers. They are presented here to offer
targets for those observers who carefully plot the meteor activity they see
and those who use other methods of meteor observing such as telescopic,
photographic, and video. I would advise a majority visual observers to
concentrate on reporting the activity of showers rated at least class III or
higher. These showers offer the best opportunity to see activity other than
that produced by the sporadic background.

The moon reaches its new phase on Saturday January 29. At this time the moon
will rise and set with the sun, and will not be visible in the night sky. As
the week progresses the moon will enter the evening sky as a waxing
crescent, still setting well before the peak meteor viewing time. The
estimated total hourly rates for evening observers this week should be near
two for Northern Hemisphere observers and three for those located in the
Southern Hemisphere. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates
should be near eleven for Northern Hemisphere observers and fourteen for
those located in the Southern Hemisphere. These rates assume that you are
watching from rural areas away from all sources of light pollution. The
actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal light and motion
perception, local weather conditions, alertness and experience in watching
meteor activity.

The radiant positions listed below are exact for Saturday night/Sunday
morning January 28/29. These positions do not change greatly day to day so
the listed coordinates may be used during this entire period. Most star
atlases (available at science stores and planetariums) will provide maps
with grid lines of the celestial coordinates so that you may find out
exactly where these positions are located in the sky. A planisphere or
computer planetarium program is also useful in showing the sky at any time
of night on any date of the year. Activity from each radiant is best seen
when it is positioned highest in the sky, either due north or south along
the meridian, depending on your latitude. Meteor activity is not seen from
radiants that are located below the horizon. The positions below are listed
in a west to east manner in order of right ascension (celestial longitude).
The positions listed first are located further west therefore are accessible
earlier in the night while those listed further down the list rise later in
the night.

These are the showers that may be observed this week:

The Alpha Carinids (ACN) are class IV shower (best left for study by
observers who use video, telescopic, and photographic observations) shower
listed among the radiants of the Dutch Meteor Society. The date of maximum
activity is January 30 with a predicted ZHR of two. With such low activity
care must be taken to exclude any sporadic activity from the Alpha Carinid
count. The radiant currently lies at 06:20 (095) -54. This position lies in
western Carina, only two degrees south of the brilliant negative one
magnitude star Canopus (Alpha Carinae). This radiant is only seen well from
the northern equatorial regions southward. The area of the sky is also best
placed near 2200 (10pm) local standard time. At 25 km/sec. the Alpha
Carinids produce meteors of slow velocity.

The Delta Velids (DVE) are a very weak shower listed among radiants of the
Dutch Meteor Society. The date of maximum activity is February 14 with a
predicted ZHR of only one. With such low activity care must again be taken
to exclude any sporadic activity from the Delta Velid count. The radiant
currently lies at 08:28 (127) -50. This position lies in western Vela, five
degrees northwest of the second magnitude star Delta Velorum. This radiant
is only seen well from the northern equatorial regions southward. The area
of the sky is also best placed near midnight local standard time. At 35
km/sec. the Delta Velids produce meteors of average velocity.

The Alpha Hydrids (AHY) are another class IV shower listed among the
radiants of the Dutch Meteor Society. The date of maximum activity was
January 14 with a predicted ZHR of two. Current rates would be most likely
less than one shower member per hour. The radiant currently lies at 09:32
(143) -16. This position lies in western Hydra, seven degrees south of the
second magnitude star Alphard (Alpha Hydrae). This radiant is seen equally
well from both hemispheres. The area of the sky is also best placed on the
meridian near 0100 local standard time. At 44 km/sec. the Alpha Hydrids
produce meteors of average velocity.

The Eclipticid (ECL) radiant is now centered at 10:24 (156) +16. This area
of the sky is located in northern Sextans, seven degrees southeast of the
first magnitude star Regulus (Alpha Leonis). This radiant is best placed
near 0200 local standard time when it lies on the meridian and is highest in
the sky. Rates should be near three per hour from the Northern Hemisphere
and two per hour for observers south of the equator. With an entry velocity
of 30 km/sec., the average Eclipticid meteor would be of medium-slow speed.
This radiant is a good source of fireballs, more so as we progress through
the winter months. Those who send reports to the I.M.O. should label these
meteors as Virginids (VIR).

The Omicron Centaurids (OCE) are one of several radiants that are active in
Centaurus during late January and throughout the month of February. This is
the weakest of the three radiants now active in Centaurus. The date of
maximum activity is February 14 with a predicted ZHR of two. Actual rates
would be less than one shower member per hour, no matter your location. The
radiant lies at 11:20 (163) -49. This position is in western Centaurus, five
degrees east of the third magnitude star Mu Velorum. Due to the southern
declination this shower is not well seen north of the northern tropical
regions. This area of the sky is best placed near 0300 local standard time
when it lies highest in the sky. At 51 km/sec. the Omicron Centaurids
produce meteors of medium-swift velocity.

The Theta Centaurids (TCE) is the first of several radiants that are active
in Centaurus during late January and throughout the month of February. The
date of maximum activity is February 14 with a predicted ZHR of four.
Current ZHR's would be near one. Actual counts at this time would most
likely be less than one per hour. The radiant lies at 12:44 (191) -34. This
position is in a remote area of eastern Hydra, ten degrees south of the
third magnitude star Beta Corvi. This shower is not well seen north of the
northern tropical regions. It is possible to see activity from the latitude
of San Diego, CA as I have witnessed several of these meteors during my
winter observations. This area of the sky is best placed near 0400 local
standard time when it lies highest in the sky. At 60 km/sec. the Theta
Centaurids produce meteors of swift velocity.

The Alpha Centaurids (ACE) are the strongest of the radiants that are active
in Centaurus during late January and throughout the month of February. The
date of maximum activity is February 8 with a predicted ZHR of seven.
Current rates should be 1-2 per hour as seen from the Southern Hemisphere.
The radiant lies at 13:16 (199) -57. This position is in southeastern
Centaurus, four degrees southwest of the second magnitude star Epsilon
Centauri. Due to the southern declination this shower is not well seen north
of the northern equatorial regions. This area of the sky is also best placed
near 0500 local standard time when it lies highest in the sky. At 56 km/sec.
the Alpha Centaurids produce meteors of swift velocity.

Possible activity in Bootes-Corona Borealis-Serpens Caput? There have been
reports of activity in and around this area in late January and early
February. Veteran observer George Gliba was the first to notice this
activity during the mid 90's. Intensified video studies by t he IMO in 2000
revealed two radiants; one in Serpens Caput and another located in Corona
Borealis during the first week of February. Observers are urged to keep a
look out for this activity now through mid-February. The two IMO radiants
are located at 15:32 (233) +30 and 15:44 (236) +13. The northern radiant is
located within the "crown" close to the star Beta Coronae Borealis. The more
southern radiant is located near the "head" of Serpens two degrees south of
Beta Serpentis. Another area of possible activity would lie in eastern
Bootes between Arcturus and Xi Bootis. This area of the sky is too low until
0200 local standard time.

Any suspected shower members would appear to move slowly if seen near the
radiant or near the horizon. Those seen high in the sky and far from the
radiant will appear to be swift. Meteors seen near the radiant would also be
short. If you are facing the radiants and see a long meteor close to the
radiant(s) then that meteors is sporadic or belongs to another shower.
Plotting, telescopic, photographic, and video observations are of prime
importance to try to help us determine shower association. Your efforts in
trying to help us verify this activity and its exact radiant would be
extremely appreciated.

The Sporadic rates for the Northern Hemisphere are now past their annual
peak. One would expect to see perhaps eight random meteors per hour during
the last hours before dawn from rural observing sites. During the evening
hours perhaps two random meteors can be seen per hour. Sporadic rates seen
from the Southern Hemisphere are also decreasing toward a secondary minimum
in March. One would see approximately ten random meteors per hour during the
late morning hours and three per hour during the evening.

Alpha Carinids (ACN)    06:20 (095) -54 Class IV
Hourly Rate = N. Hemisphere >1 - S. Hemisphere >1

Delta Velid (DVE)    08:28 (127) -50   Class IV
Hourly Rate = N. Hemisphere >1 - S. Hemisphere >1

Eclipticid (ECL)    10:24 (156) +16   Class II
Hourly Rate = N. Hemisphere 3 - S. Hemisphere 2

Omicron Centaurids (OCE)    11:20 (163) -49   Class IV
Hourly Rate = N. Hemisphere 0 - S. Hemisphere >1

Theta Centaurids (TCE)     12:44 (191) -34    Class IV
Hourly Rate = N. Hemisphere 0 - S. Hemisphere >1

Alpha Centaurids (ACR)   13:16 (199) -57    Class II
Hourly Rate = N. Hemisphere 0 - S. Hemisphere 2

For a detailed explanation on the different classes of meteor showers and
other astronomical terms, please visit:
http://www.amsmeteors.org/showers.html#X2006

Clear Skies!
Robert Lunsford
American Meteor Society