(meteorobs) Upcoming Leonid returns

[Jure Atanackov]

Hello all,

with the Meteor Winter in full strength now, I though I'd ask a few questions 
on the Leonids. With 8 years having passed since the parent comet's return, 
the time of very strong Leonid returns and certainly storms is over. :(

However, several fairly strong returns are predicted for the next 4 or 5 
years. My question: how certain are these predictions, especially their peak 
ZHRs? IIRC, the peak ZHRs for 2008 and 2009 returns are several hundred 
(400+)! And furthermore, does any of the experts of Leonid simulations think 
that a very strong return, perhaps even approaching storm strength, is 
possible at any time? The reason I'm asking this is that, again IIRC, one of 
the trails encountered in 2003 was 15 revolutions old, yet it only made 14 
(!!) revolutions around the Sun! In one of the articles, by Esko I think, it 
was stated that we missed a very dense part of the trail, dense enough to 
cause a very significant meteor storm. (Esko, please correct me if I'm wrong) 
Assuming that the trail didn't just stop somewhere along the way, waited for 
the comet to make another revolution and then proceeded, it had to have slowly 
increased its lag behind the comet. Could it have, under favourable encounter 
geometry, caused a meteor storm in the 'off years'? 

Off topic, the weather's been awful here for the past 6 months! I think the 
number of clear nights with no moon could be counted on the fingers of both 
hands...
Clear skies!
Jure A.




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