(meteorobs) Upcoming Leonid returns

Mikhail Maslov ast0 at mail.ru
Tue Mar 14 17:00:50 EST 2006


Hello, Rick and all,
I repost to the list my message on this point. I wrote it several days
ago.

--------------------
Detaled prediction will be later, but if you are interested in the peak
from 1932 trail, then its parameters are the following:

2006
rev. Year  rd-re   ej. Vel. fM(fNP) sol.long max. Time      ZHR ex.
            AU       m/s              deg       UT
2    1932 0,00013   87,12   0,481   236,617 19.11.2006 4:51   33

These figures are still somewhat preliminary, i.e. they can change,
but a very little, not significantly.
Ejection velocity is very high, so meteors will be very dim (i.e.
index r value will be very high). There are reasons to expect much
stronger radio and telescopic activity, maybe up to stormy levels.
Also the peak will be very short, I think less than 2 hours length.
Note also, that ZHRex value in the table is purely for trail action,
overall activity with background can reach ZHR=40-50.
The main uncertainty in this case is due to the low observational
base for encounters of such kind - young trail and high ejection
velocity. The single similar case was in 1969 - encounter with 1 rev
trail and high ejection velocity. Activity was 100 meteors per hour,
but considering the assumed high index r value ZHR was perhaps much
higher. My computations give ZHRex~600, and I saw some papers where
their Authours suggest similar values of real ZHR for 1969 Leonids.
And another point. Background activity aside the 1932 trail action is
expected to be on the low side (10-15 meteors in ZHR). It's because
now the overall Leonid stream moved far inside the Earth orbit.
--------------------

Also, I have to note that the first prediction of 1932 trail activity
in 2006 and 2007 appeared several years ago and I only present my own
results which are in good accordance with results of other
forecasters.

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov



RR> Mikhail,
   
RR>   Could you please elaborate on the enhancement this year from the 1932 trail?
   
RR>   Thank you, Rick Runcie



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