(meteorobs)Fwd: P73 meteor shower on the night of May 22-23? - keep looki...

[Skywayinc at aol.com]

In a message dated 5/17/06 11:48:57 AM Eastern Daylight Time, 
david at exposquare.com writes:

> Jack Drummond of the Starfire Optical Range predicts that debris 
> previously shed by the comet could bring us a meteor shower on the 
> night of May 22-23. 

I'm certainly not in the same league with Esko, Peter and the other 
knowledgeable experts on this list, but in my opinion 0.04 a.u. is too much of a 
separation between our orbit and that of 73P to result in anything meaningful so far 
as meteor activity is concerned.  

While certainly some renegade stragglers ejected by the comet are certainly 
possible, I don't think there will be very many of them.  If, for instance, 
material from the 1995 fracture of 73P were to somehow interact with Earth, a 
very high ejection velocity from the cometary nucleus would be required . . . and 
that usually means meteors that are very faint or visually not detectable at 
all.  

In fact . . . our respective orbits are not too much farther apart right now 
. . . and will continue to be relatively close right on past the nodal 
crossing at the end of this month, right on into early June. 

So, if we are to see anything, I believe it should be happening now and for 
the next few weeks; it is not really all that worthwhile targeting May 22 . . . 
the separation between the orbits won't change more than 0.01 or 0.02 a.u. 
from the May 22 value in the coming days ahead.

-- joe rao