(meteorobs) Draconids 1985-2025

[Mikhail Maslov]

Hello,
I decided to post a short summary on my computations of some Draconid cases
between years 1985 and 2025. Some terms used here can be confusing,
don't pay attention to them, the most inportant are figures are
expected time of maximum and its intencity.

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Draconids 1985. The most difficult year. Traditional computations
explain it very badly. But the analysis of non-perihelion particles is
also suffers here as one of trails to be used (namely, 1940 trail) is
strongly perturbed by the Earth in 1946. Using 1933 trail instead of
1940 one gives the time of maximum 2-3 hours earlier than really
observed one.

Draconids 1992. No significant outburst was observed that year. The
analysis of non-perihelion particles gives formal time of maximum
08.10.1992 11:23 UT (favorable for the Pacific ocean). Values of
parameter T and ejection velocity are not good for visual activity.
Draconids 1998. Direct encounter with 1926 trail. Traditional analysis
describes this case very well, so there is no need to use other
methods.

Draconids 2005. Analysis of non-perihelion particles gives time of
maximum 08.10.2005 16:48 UT, which is in very good accordance with
observing data. Ejection velocity 29,8 m/s means that most part of
activity should occur in radio range.

Draconids 2006. Analysis of non-perihelion particles says that in 2006
Draconids can give a radio outburst with maximum at 09.10.2006 4:43
UT. Ejection velocity 86.7 m/s and the bright moonlight leaves no
chances for significant visual activity.

Draconids 2011. Close encounter with a bunch of oldish trails. Due to
close positions of these trails analysis of non-perihelion particles
is not the best choice here, and traditional prediction is quite
enough. So far, the time of maximum lies close to 08.10.2011 20:13 UT,
but this should be the main peak. The whole activity is expected to
last up to several hours, prior to the main maximum several submaximas
are possible. The first past of activity should consist of brighter
meteors and closer to main peak meteors are expected to became dimmer.
Overall intensity should not be very high, but very accurate
predictions are difficult due to the lack of observational base.
Likely, the brighter component will not surpass the level of ZHR=10,
and ZHRmax of the main peak will be somewhere between 10 and 100
meteors.

Draconids 2012. Perspectives are not good due to the perturbed 1959
trail. Still, the most suitable time for observation of possible signs
of Draconid activity is 08.10.2012 16:30 UT. However, visual rates at
best are not expected to surpass 1-2 meteors per hour. Something
better is possible in radio range.

Draconids 2018. Quite favorable geometry is overindemned by the large
hole in the dust matter of the comet 21P. The estimation on the base
of 2005 case plus some background activity due to the proximity of the
parent comet allows the Author to expect ZHR about 10-20 meteors.
Maximum time is 08.10.2018 23:56 UT

Draconids 2025. A direct encounter with very young 2012 trail. The
negative feature is very high ejection velocity. Therefore in visual
range a very short peak with EZHR ~ 10-40 meteors is likely. On the
other hand, in radiorange a very heavy ( but still short) storm is
possible. The maximum is to be reached at 08.10.2025 15:14 UT.
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Best regards, Mikhail Maslov