(meteorobs) Comet P/2006 T1 (LEVY)

[Esko Lyytinen]

Hi Roberto and others,

Some days ago, I made an integration from the comet previous orbital 
elements, backwards and forward.
Now the new elements seem to have (according to the semimajor axis) the 
orbital period about 5.5 days longer.

According to the previous elements, the comet would have come to the 
node in the end of 2011 about three and a half days before the Earth. I 
have not done new integration with the new elements, but the difference 
seems to tell that the comet will come (to the node) just two days after 
the Earth!!. There may still be an uncertainty af about this much? As 
you say, a fine display of the comet is expected!! (it passes at the 
night side)

The situation is safe, however with no danger of collision with the 
comet. The ecliptic crossing radii appears to have increased to about 
1.00758 AU.

This is also (about) with the young trails (for the trail from 1975 
rD=1.0070 AU ). So there may not be a meteor outburst then, I think.

In this (2006) year the (found most promising) 1975 trail passes about 
0.002 Au outside the earth orbit, a little too distant for an outburst, 
something might be seen (at sol.long. 279.768)?
In 1972 there seems to have been a Jupiter encounter by 0.345 AU 
(according to the previous elements). This makes the history of the 
orbit uncertain before this. The 1970 trail seems to be less 
promising.and I did not try to make conclusions form still earlier, 
because the uncertainties.

Regards,
Esko

> From: "Roberto G." <md6648 at mclink.it>
> Subject: (meteorobs) Comet P/2006 T1 (LEVY)
> To: "Meteorobs" <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
>
> I hope that the text it's in a good English.
>
> Yesterday it is exited the quater circular on the comet P/2006 T1
> (LEVY), by now the orbit it is practically definitive, it comes
> outside also the MOID (minimal distance between the orbit of the comet
> and the orbit of Earth) it's inferior to 894,000 Km, if the comet
> were last to the perihelion 31.312 December instead of 7.434 October
> 2006 we would have seen it of -0.6a with a chioma of approximately 27°,
> for giving to a once and average idea the dimension of Orion it's 20°,
> over the East horizon to the end of the twilight, but it has
> gone like has gone!
>
> Instead the interesting news it is that the period is of 5.22 years, if
> will be confirmed in the 2011 it shall pass to the perihelion 80.355
> days later of 7.434 October 2006, that is 26.789 December,
> therefore it would have to be visible of 3,5a with a tail of 57°, if the
> calculations are mistaken little more than 1/100 than year, that is of
> approximately 5 days, perfectly possible, then we will see the
> comet of -0,6 like calculated if it had the perihelion 31 December
> of this year.
>
> Moreover independently from the fine passage of 2011, the Moid
> indicates that if the outburst of the past days it has expelled
> meteoritical dusts to the speed at least 14.5 m/sec to fine 2008
> we must have a beautiful meteoric swarm to New Year's Day,
> but if the dust tail were not enough long to generate a fine
> swarm to 2008, sure to New Year's Day 2012 we would have a
> spectacular meteor rain in how much we would pass in the meteor
> cloud after only 5 days, that is the denser side of meteors in
> of a comet.
> I hope that I not do mistake in calculations.
> Best greetings.
> Roberto Gorelli
>
>
>