(meteorobs) Comet P/2006 T1 (LEVY)

[Skywayinc at aol.com]

In a message dated 10/21/2006 12:31:26 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
esko.lyytinen at jippii.fi writes:

According to the previous elements, the comet would have come to the  
node in the end of 2011 about three and a half days before the Earth. I  
have not done new integration with the new elements, but the difference  
seems to tell that the comet will come (to the node) just two days after  
the Earth!!. There may still be an uncertainty af about this much? As  
you say, a fine display of the comet is expected!! (it passes at the  
night side)



After reading Esko Lyytinen's message (above) I decided to calculate  the 
circumstances of Comet P/2006 T1 for its next apparition in late  2011/early 
2012. I used the latest set of orbital elements that appear  on MPEC 2006-U32 and 
integrated the motion of the comet forward from its  2006 October 7.434 
perihelion.
 
I can pretty much confirm what Esko noted above. Comet P/2006 T1 will  arrive 
at the descending node of its orbit just 2.96 days after the  Earth. In fact, 
the comet will arrive at perihelion on 2012 Jan. 2.08  UT, and then arrive at 
the node a mere 0.88-day later!  
 
The comet will come to perigee (closest to the Earth) on 2012 January  4.5, 
at a distance of just 0.040 AU. This would qualify as the eighth-closest  
approach of a comet to Earth. The comet will be in Taurus and will be visible  for 
practically the entire night as seen from mid-northern latitudes.  
 
As to how bright Comet P/2006 T1 might appear, its distance from  Earth will 
be 33-times closer at the 2012 perihelion as compared to 2006.   The comet was 
magnitude 11.2 this year, so if we were to simply apply the  inverse square 
law, then it could be as much as 7.5 magnitudes  brighter when it arrives at 
perigee in 2012.  
 
Interestingly, it appears that in August 1972, Comet P/2006 T1 passed  within 
0.24 AU of Jupiter, significantly altering its orbit.  Prior to  this, the 
comet was moving in a 5-year orbit with a perihelion of 0.84 AU from  the Sun.  
 
In April 2020, the comet will approach to within 0.29 AU of Jupiter  and will 
again have its orbit changed: its perihelion distance will be  reduced to 
0.857 AU and its period will be shortened again to just  over 5-years.
 
Of course, with additional observations, the orbit of P/2006 T1 will  
continue to be refined, so, as Esko alludes to, there could still be an  uncertainty 
of a couple of days, which might bring the comet even closer to  Earth.  Stay 
tuned! 
 
-- joe rao