(meteorobs) Comet P/2006 T1 (LEVY)

[Roberto G.]

From: <Skywayinc at aol.com>


>
> In a message dated 10/21/2006 12:31:26 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
> esko.lyytinen at jippii.fi writes:
>
> According to the previous elements, the comet would have come to the
> node in the end of 2011 about three and a half days before the Earth. I
> have not done new integration with the new elements, but the difference
> seems to tell that the comet will come (to the node) just two days after
> the Earth!!. There may still be an uncertainty af about this much? As
> you say, a fine display of the comet is expected!! (it passes at the
> night side)
>
>
>
> After reading Esko Lyytinen's message (above) I decided to calculate  the
> circumstances of Comet P/2006 T1 for its next apparition in late 
> 2011/early
> 2012. I used the latest set of orbital elements that appear  on MPEC 
> 2006-U32 and
> integrated the motion of the comet forward from its  2006 October 7.434
> perihelion.
>
> I can pretty much confirm what Esko noted above. Comet P/2006 T1 will 
> arrive
> at the descending node of its orbit just 2.96 days after the  Earth. In 
> fact,
> the comet will arrive at perihelion on 2012 Jan. 2.08  UT, and then arrive 
> at
> the node a mere 0.88-day later!
>
> The comet will come to perigee (closest to the Earth) on 2012 January 
> 4.5,
> at a distance of just 0.040 AU. This would qualify as the eighth-closest
> approach of a comet to Earth. The comet will be in Taurus and will be 
> visible  for
> practically the entire night as seen from mid-northern latitudes.
>
> As to how bright Comet P/2006 T1 might appear, its distance from  Earth 
> will
> be 33-times closer at the 2012 perihelion as compared to 2006.   The comet 
> was
> magnitude 11.2 this year, so if we were to simply apply the  inverse 
> square
> law, then it could be as much as 7.5 magnitudes  brighter when it arrives 
> at
> perigee in 2012.

CUT

> Of course, with additional observations, the orbit of P/2006 T1 will
> continue to be refined, so, as Esko alludes to, there could still be an 
> uncertainty
> of a couple of days, which might bring the comet even closer to  Earth. 
> Stay
> tuned!
>
> -- joe rao

At the present time we must remember that we observed only an arc of 18
days that it's 1/100 of a period of around 5 years (more of 1800 days),
we cannot calcul the exact orbit and more important we not known how
the non gravitational forces shall do in the next 5 years, we can be sure 
that
the today nominal period of 5,22 years in 2011-2012 it shall be in reality
5,18 years, 5,29 years or other, that I wan to said it's only that there 
it's
the theorical possibility, that can to be realty, that this comet pass very 
near
to the Earth, and not only at eighth-closest  approach but better.

I want to said too an other point: I not do calculation on the trails
as do Esko, I calculated only the radial removal od the meteoritical dusts
from the orbit of the comet, I have assumed that the present outburst
of the comet expelled dusts spherically, if they was expelled at a
speed of  only 5 m/sec at the end of 2011 certainly this dusts
shall be expansed in a side of a torus with a diameter biggest of that
the MOID of the comet, and we must too reminder that in all
comets the space behind they it's full of dusts.
Best greetings.
Roberto Gorelli