(meteorobs) Comet P/2006 T1 (LEVY)
Mikhail Maslov
ast3 at ngs.ru
Tue Oct 24 05:12:17 EDT 2006
For improved orbital elements we have the following set of parameters.
Indeed there is a very favorable return in 2012 and comet deserves
very close attention. It is still unclear for me why this comet wasn't
discovered before. It is quite big, its m1 value is close to say,
21P's one. Also, it should have a favorable return in 1985 when it's
brigntness should be above 10.0 mag.
MD=minimal distance
MD passage by the comet MD sollong of MD corr. in 2000
AU °
09.02.1905 18:13 -0,06622748 290,3684747 11.01.2000 7:16
14.04.1910 19:38 -0,064539629 290,0996978 11.01.2000 0:56
23.06.1915 6:29 -0,158964117 306,9196155 27.01.2000 13:31
29.05.1920 10:11 -0,160973367 307,4452753 28.01.2000 1:56
01.05.1925 7:21 -0,161091899 307,5470903 28.01.2000 4:20
02.04.1930 17:47 -0,163453574 308,2825718 28.01.2000 21:42
06.03.1935 0:08 -0,160455015 307,2761278 27.01.2000 21:56
26.02.1940 7:09 -0,122579115 293,5510972 14.01.2000 10:14
09.03.1945 6:05 -0,122848802 293,441309 14.01.2000 7:39
16.03.1950 13:25 -0,136647909 296,1486178 16.01.2000 23:27
13.03.1955 19:36 -0,14026726 296,9525487 17.01.2000 18:23
07.03.1960 9:17 -0,138436695 296,5301998 17.01.2000 8:26
03.03.1965 7:45 -0,136341399 296,0141056 16.01.2000 20:16
03.03.1970 14:56 -0,133946242 295,3644554 16.01.2000 4:58
01.06.1975 16:04 0,024730622 279,852614 31.12.2000 5:47
04.09.1980 22:43 0,024265066 279,8184964 31.12.2000 4:59
02.12.1985 14:19 0,007778428 279,8003679 31.12.2000 4:33
20.02.1991 19:21 0,003115108 279,7838468 31.12.2000 4:10
07.05.1996 3:26 0,004977328 279,7805201 31.12.2000 4:05
22.07.2001 0:48 0,001863664 279,7994464 31.12.2000 4:32
07.10.2006 20:12 0,005961795 279,7782653 31.12.2000 4:02
03.01.2012 1:25 0,024138603 279,681069 31.12.2000 1:45
13.04.2017 0:34 0,025925765 279,641532 31.12.2000 0:49
12.07.2022 8:03 -0,12153069 267,4902627 19.12.2000 2:33
19.07.2027 2:48 -0,123227715 267,0347063 18.12.2000 15:49
20.07.2032 20:06 -0,126133227 266,4833736 18.12.2000 2:49
21.07.2037 14:24 -0,129597583 265,7907489 17.12.2000 10:29
23.07.2042 1:35 -0,126154106 266,4734933 18.12.2000 2:35
02.08.2047 16:20 -0,113186368 268,5898128 20.12.2000 4:28
19.08.2052 7:38 -0,111057976 268,7414823 20.12.2000 8:03
17.08.2057 21:40 -0,15491103 252,7722734 04.12.2000 15:04
22.07.2062 14:14 -0,157417723 251,848172 03.12.2000 17:12
22.06.2067 20:48 -0,156596358 252,1306666 03.12.2000 23:53
21.05.2072 18:28 -0,157685689 251,8323058 03.12.2000 16:50
23.04.2077 3:02 -0,155479059 252,4833778 04.12.2000 8:14
13.06.2082 4:59 -0,061848357 269,605457 21.12.2000 4:24
04.08.2087 0:49 -0,062133957 269,4926289 21.12.2000 1:45
16.09.2092 1:26 -0,076023947 267,4876424 19.12.2000 2:29
22.10.2097 13:09 -0,079652707 266,9306446 18.12.2000 13:21
Best regards, Mikhail Maslov
Sac> In a message dated 10/21/2006 12:31:26 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
Sac> esko.lyytinen at jippii.fi writes:
Sac> According to the previous elements, the comet would have come to the
Sac> node in the end of 2011 about three and a half days before the Earth. I
Sac> have not done new integration with the new elements, but the difference
Sac> seems to tell that the comet will come (to the node) just two days after
Sac> the Earth!!. There may still be an uncertainty af about this much? As
Sac> you say, a fine display of the comet is expected!! (it passes at the
Sac> night side)
Sac> After reading Esko Lyytinen's message (above) I decided to calculate the
Sac> circumstances of Comet P/2006 T1 for its next apparition in late 2011/early
Sac> 2012. I used the latest set of orbital elements that appear on MPEC 2006-U32 and
Sac> integrated the motion of the comet forward from its 2006 October 7.434
Sac> perihelion.
Sac> I can pretty much confirm what Esko noted above. Comet P/2006 T1 will arrive
Sac> at the descending node of its orbit just 2.96 days after the Earth. In fact,
Sac> the comet will arrive at perihelion on 2012 Jan. 2.08 UT, and then arrive at
Sac> the node a mere 0.88-day later!
Sac> The comet will come to perigee (closest to the Earth) on 2012 January 4.5,
Sac> at a distance of just 0.040 AU. This would qualify as the eighth-closest
Sac> approach of a comet to Earth. The comet will be in Taurus and will be visible for
Sac> practically the entire night as seen from mid-northern latitudes.
Sac> As to how bright Comet P/2006 T1 might appear, its distance from Earth will
Sac> be 33-times closer at the 2012 perihelion as compared to 2006. The comet was
Sac> magnitude 11.2 this year, so if we were to simply apply the inverse square
Sac> law, then it could be as much as 7.5 magnitudes brighter when it arrives at
Sac> perigee in 2012.
Sac> Interestingly, it appears that in August 1972, Comet P/2006 T1 passed within
Sac> 0.24 AU of Jupiter, significantly altering its orbit. Prior to this, the
Sac> comet was moving in a 5-year orbit with a perihelion of 0.84 AU from the Sun.
Sac> In April 2020, the comet will approach to within 0.29 AU of Jupiter and will
Sac> again have its orbit changed: its perihelion distance will be reduced to
Sac> 0.857 AU and its period will be shortened again to just over 5-years.
Sac> Of course, with additional observations, the orbit of P/2006 T1 will
Sac> continue to be refined, so, as Esko alludes to, there could still be an uncertainty
Sac> of a couple of days, which might bring the comet even closer to Earth. Stay
Sac> tuned!
Sac> -- joe rao
Sac> ---
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