(meteorobs) June Bootids prediction for 1901-2100

[Mikhail Maslov]

Oops, I looked at wrong column in ZHR profile, given by IMO for the
June Bootids 1998. Actually it shows a long maximum with ZHR about 100
meteors from 11:50 to 19:30 UT 27 June. And I should note, that in my
prediction of 1998 I also give a long period of singnificant activity
- from 3 UT 27 June to 3 UT 28 June which corresponds to the profile
quite good. I.e., I did not mention a sharp peak near 21:40 UT, but a
broad maximum around it. Note also, that observations in the period
12-19 UT were very scattered, so ZHR values, derived from them are
quite unreliable. So I think the timing of prediction is satisfactory
while maximum intensity is overestimated.

Best regards, Mikhail




R> Hi Mikhail,
R> But from observations IMO the maximum has been around to the 14 UT (but with
R> much uncertainty why various the high activity is duration hours).
R> Clear Skies,
R> Roberto Haver


R> ----- Original Message ----- 
R> From: "Mikhail Maslov" <ast3 at ngs.ru>
R> To: "Global Meteor Observing Forum" <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
R> Sent: Saturday, April 21, 2007 8:52 AM
R> Subject: Re[2]: (meteorobs) June Bootids prediction for 1901-2100


>> Hello, Roberto,
>>
>> IMO data show that in 1998 the June Bootids gave a maximum at 22-23 UT
>> of 27 June, so the timing of my prediction (21:40 UT) is quite
>> accurate for old 19 century trails. However, I significantly
>> overestimated ZHR. One of main reasons is low observing base - we have
>> only several cases of the June Bootids activity so it is difficult to
>> build an interpolating function of activity for various conditions.
>> Even with the Leonids predicted ZHR values differ 2-3 times from observed
>> ones. The June Bootids are studied much less.
>>
>> Best regards, Mikhail
>>
>>
>> R> Hi,
>> R> for the 1998 the data that they give are these:
>> R> 1998 max 27.06 21:40 (UT) and ZHR 600/700
>> R> To me it turns out that the maximum has been around to the 14 UT of the
R> 27
>> R> and with ZHR of approximately 200.
>> R> I observed that evening and to that hour, from written you like the
R> maximum,
>> R> the activity was coming down and it was not moreover cosi high.
>> R> Roberto Haver
>>
>> R> ----- Original Message ----- 
>> R> From: "Mikhail Maslov" <ast3 at ngs.ru>
>> R> To: <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
>> R> Sent: Sunday, April 15, 2007 6:22 PM
>> R> Subject: (meteorobs) June Bootids prediction for 1901-2100
>>
>>
>> >> Hello,
>> >>
>> >> Prediction for the June Bootids activity in the years 1901-2100 is
>> >> now available at
>> >> http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/predicteng.html
>> >>
>> >> Best regards, Mikhail Maslov
>> >>
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>> >>
>>
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>>

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